FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 2, 2023, in observance of New Year’s Day.
Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.
Wheat prices overnight are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $0.33; Soyoil up 0.10.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 27 3/4; Soymeal up $0.71; Soyoil up 0.30.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 19 3/4 in SRW, down 28 1/2 in HRW, down 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans up 35 3/4; Soymeal up $42.00; Soyoil down 5.21.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1% in SRW, up 9% in HRW, down -6% in HRS; Corn is up 15%; Soybeans up 13%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 17%.
Like what you’re reading?
Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!
Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans down 25 yuan; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil down 58; Corn up 10 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 3 ringgit (+0.07%) at 4090.
There were changes in registrations (-30 Soymeal, -100 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,788 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 91 Soybeans; 774 Soyoil; 205 Soymeal; 310 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 28 were: SRW Wheat up 1,909 contracts, HRW Wheat up 311, Corn up 10,531, Soybeans down 6,843, Soymeal down 1,169, Soyoil down 1,659.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.
Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Sunday. Outlook: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. Outlook: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Sunday. Outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.
The player sheet for Dec. 28 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 10,000 soybeans, buyers of 8,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.
- WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities said it contracted for a quantity of 200,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in a World Bank-funded tender.
- VEGETABLE OILS SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC said it bought 30,000 tonnes of soyoil and 12,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a tender.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 113,460 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States. The deadline for submissions of price offers is Dec. 29.
- CORN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued new international tenders to purchase around 25,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 83,672 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States.
- CIF bids for soybean barges loaded on U.S. Midwest rivers were strong on Wednesday while bids for corn barges weakened, dealers said.
- Strong export demand for soybeans keyed the gains in the CIF market.
- But export demand for U.S. corn remained light.
- CIF soybean barges loaded in December were bid at 150 cents over January futures, up 3 cents from Tuesday.
- January loadings of soybean barges traded for 142 cents and 143 cents over futures.
- FOB offers for soybeans loaded at the U.S. Gulf in January were unchanged at about 165 cents over CBOT January futures.
- CIF corn barges loaded in December were bid at 110 cents over March, down 1 cent from Monday.
- Export premiums for January loadings of corn held steady at about 135 cents over March futures.
- The wheat market was steady, with CIF bids for soft red winter wheat loaded in December reported 120 cents over March, No January offers. March offered at 135, unchanged; while January export premiums were offered at 155 cents over.
- CIF bids for hard red winter wheat loaded in were unchanged at 157 cents over futures and FOB offers for January were unchanged at 180 over futures.
- Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans were mostly steady to weaker in the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday, reflecting a light pick-up in farmer sales at the end of the year as Chicago Board of Trade futures ticked higher, dealers said.
- The corn basis fell by 7 cents at Decatur, Illinois, a processing hub, and by 5 cents at Blair, Nebraska, site of another domestic processor.
- The soybean basis fell by 7 cents at Council Bluffs, Iowa.
- A few locations have rolled their soybean basis to post against March as January nears the delivery phase ahead of its Jan. 13 expiration.
- Spot basis bids for hard red winter (HRW) wheat held steady in the southern U.S. Plains on Wednesday in subdued holiday trade, dealers said.
- Spot basis offers for soymeal held steady in the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday in subdued holiday trade, dealers said.
- Milder temperatures and strong crush margins could encourage Midwest processors to boost output following challenges posed by last week’s blizzard and frigid weather.
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 23 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.012m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 24.036m bbl vs 24.067m a week ago
- The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 11:00am Thursday
Argentina Soy Exporters Sold $2.86 Billion From Nov. 28
Argentina’s soy exporters have liquidated $2.86 billion worth of sales since the government brought back a temporary exchange rate just for that sector on Nov. 28, according to an Economy Ministry statement.
The central bank bought $239 million in the official currency market on Wednesday, the largest daily purchase by the bank since late September, according to the ministry
Argentina’s soy sales near 80% of harvest, lag previous year
Argentina’s farmers have sold 78.9% of the 2021/2022 soybean harvest so far, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday, as producers continue to benefit from a preferential exchange rate aimed at attracting sorely needed U.S. dollars.
Still, the amount of soybeans sold to date slightly lags the 80% sold at the same point in the previous 2020/2021 season.
Between Dec. 15 and Dec. 21, producers in Argentina sold 730,300 tonnes of the 44 million-tonne 2021/2022 soybean crop, one of the highest weekly figures in recent months.
Soybean sales spiked last month after the government revived a policy that allowed farmers to tap a preferential exchange rate for transactions of the grain. The policy is set to end on Friday.
Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soymeal, as well as a major supplier of corn and wheat.
Meanwhile, the government said 74% of the country’s 2021/2022 corn crop, which totaled 59 million tonnes, had been sold to date, behind the 76.8% sold in the same period during the 2020/2021 cycle.
Planting of corn for the 2022/23 cycle began in September in Argentina, the third-largest exporter of the cereal, where a prolonged drought affected the development of early-planted grains, the major Rosario grains exchange said.
Farmers have sold 6.4 million tonnes of wheat from the 2022/23 campaign, which represents 48% of the total production of 13.4 million tonnes estimated by the government.
SovEcon Raises Russian 2023 Wheat Crop Outlook After Ample Rains
Next year’s Russian wheat harvest is now seen at 86m tons, up 0.4m tons from a prior estimate, researcher SovEcon says in an emailed note.
- That’s based on good crop conditions amid ample moisture
- Winter-wheat is in better-than-usual shape in the Center and Volga Valley regions
- Still, the harvest would be down from this year; SovEcon pegs 2022 crop at 101.2m tons
- Some farmers are curbing wheat seeding due to heavy rains during autumn plantings and high export taxes
- NOTE: SovEcon says its estimates are based on the territory Russia controlled as of the start of 2022
Ukraine’s Black Sea Crop Exports Doubled W/w in Week to Dec. 25
Crop exports from Ukraine’s ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative totaled about 1.2m tons in the week to Dec. 25, according to data posted by the Joint Coordination Centre.
- That compares with about 514,848 tons the prior week
- Total for week to Dec. 25 includes six corn cargoes destined for China
- TOTAL TONNAGE: More than 15.9m tons of crops have shipped since the initiative was agreed in late July
Indonesia delays mandatory palm oil biodiesel 35% blending to Feb. 1 – energy ministry
Indonesia will start its mandatory palm oil biodiesel 35% blending on Feb. 1, a month later than initially planned, the energy ministry said.
Indonesia’s will keep its 30% mandatory palm biodiesel blending, a policy in place since 2020, throughout January, it said in a statement late Wednesday.
COFCO, Sinograin Oilseed Venture to Begin Operations in January
An oilseed processing venture in China, jointly set up by food conglomerate COFCO Corp. and national stockpiler Sinograin, will start operations next month.
- The new company will give priority to processing of oilseeds from central reserves, according to a statement on COFCO’s official WeChat account
- China Enterprise United Oils & Oilseeds Co. was registered in September
- COFCO and Sinograin have also set up a joint venture to manage China’s central grain reserves
Egypt’s GASC Wheat Purchases Reach at Least 4.18m Tons
Egypt’s state buyer bought 200,000 tons of wheat in a tender this week, bringing its total purchases of the grain for the 2022-23 season so far to at least 4.18 million tons.
- NOTE: USDA forecasts Egypt to import 11 million tons during the season, and about half is typically booked by the government
- The General Authority for Supply Commodities this year began booking some wheat in private talks with traders, marking a shift from its historical process of securing supply in tenders
- Near this time last year, GASC had booked about 3.83 million tons of wheat in tenders
India Extends Unrestricted Imports of Refined Palm, Some Pulses
India further extended unrestricted inbound shipments of refined palm and palmolein oils for an indefinite period, according to a notification by the commerce ministry.
- The concession was set to end on Dec. 31
- Imports are not permitted through any port in Kerala state, the notification said
- The government said in a separate notification that unrestricted purchases of black gram and pigeon peas will continue until March 31, 2024
This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at www.admis.com or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org to learn more.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
This message may contain confidential or privileged information, or information that is otherwise exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, you should promptly delete it and should not disclose, copy or distribute it to others.