TFM Morning Update 12-31-2025

FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning in the final session of 2025. March 2026 futures are 1-1/4 cents lower at $4.39-1/4. May 2026 futures have shed 1 cent to $4.47-1/2.
USDA is set to release the next backdated Export Sales report later this morning, covering activity for the week ending December 18. Corn export demand for the 2025/26 marketing year continues to run at a record pace, reinforcing the strength seen in recent weeks.
EIA data released Monday afternoon showed ethanol production easing by 36,000 barrels per day to 1.095 million barrels per day in the week ending December 19. Ethanol stocks increased by 175,000 barrels to 22.528 million barrels. Exports rose by 28,000 bpd to 219,000 bpd, while refiner inputs of ethanol edged up 6,000 bpd to 912,000 bpd.

Soybeans have started the day lower despite flash sale activity yesterday. January 2026 futures have lost 4-1/4 cents, now trading at $10.42. March 2026 futures are also 4-1/4 cents lower at $10.58.
Yesterday, the USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 136,000 metric tons to China and an additional 231,000 metric tons to unknown destinations. Both sales are slated for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year, which began September 1.
Traders continue to closely monitor Chinese buying interest and shipment flows in the wake of trade talks with the United States. The White House said Beijing had pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of the year, though Scott Bessent later pushed that deadline back to the end of February.

Wheat futures have started the day lower across the board. Chicago wheat futures are 2-1/2 cents lower at $5.08-1/4. Kansas City wheat futures are 5 cents lower at $5.17. MIAX wheat is 1 cent lower at $5.78.
Wheat prices remain under pressure amid ample global supplies. Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is projected to reach a record 27.8 million metric tons, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, which released updated estimates Tuesday.
Market participants are also keeping a close eye on developments in the Ukraine peace talks. A resolution to the nearly four-year conflict could weigh on wheat prices, as reduced shipping risks would likely lower export costs and improve access to Ukrainian ports. Ukraine remains one of the world’s largest exporters of both wheat and corn.

Matthew Lucas