TFM Morning Update 6-30-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s Derecho winds across the Midwest that brought rain but strong winds and large hail as well.
There were 64 reports of large hail yesterday and 477 reports of wind damage with three counties in Illinois reporting gusts over 100 mph.
Despite the storm and damage, Illinois was in desperate need of rain which it received a decent amount of.
The planted acreage report will be released today and trade estimates are guessing that corn acres will be at 91.85 million acres, down 150,000 acres from March intentions, some of these acres may be going towards soybeans.

Soybeans are trading higher with July leading and both soybean meal and oil higher as well. Yesterday’s storm and the damage it caused is helping futures out today.
Soybean oil has gotten support from a rise in world veg oil prices with palm oil up today, and concerns about smaller southeast Asian palm oil production.
Today’s USDA acreage report is expected to show a small increase in soybean acres with likely increases in Minnesota and North Dakota. Stocks are expected to be tighter.
Argentina has completed their soybean harvest with yields coming in 45% less than normal, another bullish factor today.

Wheat is trading higher this morning with KC leading the way up after forecasts turned slightly drier for spring wheat areas.
The USDA acreage report is expecting to show slightly lower spring wheat acreage and about 200,000 acres of declines in all wheat. Wheat stocks are forecast to be 611 mb compared to current ending stocks of 598 mb.
Global wheat production is now estimated higher at 786 mmt from 783 mmt, but stockpile estimates are expected to fall to 264 mmt from 271 mmt as consumption expands.
Ukraine’s wheat crop is being estimated at 17.9 mmt which is down 12% year over year.

Amanda Brill