TFM Morning Update 7-3-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day


  • Corn is trading higher this morning despite last week’s bearish USDA report but is likely following soybeans today with their large gains.
  • Friday’s corn planting estimate was 94.1 million acres by the USDA, the most since 2013. This makes it more likely for 23/24 ending stocks to rise.
  • The Corn Belt received significant rains in most areas with some of those areas in the most need, so today’s crop progress report will show if good to excellent ratings start moving back up.
  • Funds were net sellers as of June 28 reducing their net long position by 5,454 contracts reducing it to 52,845 contracts.


  • Soybeans are continuing their ascent this morning on the heels of Friday’s very bullish USDA report. Both soybean meal and soybean oil are significantly higher.
  • The USDA’s acreage report on Friday said that only 83.5 million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted in 2023, but 8.2 million acres of those aren’t planted yet and may not get planted.
  • The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration issued a new Seasonal Drought Outlook on Friday which showed drought persisting but improving in the central Midwest while worsening in Wisconsin and Michigan.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 22,530 contracts, increasing their net long position to 99,480 contracts.


  • Wheat is trading lower this morning despite gains in both corn and soybeans, and KC wheat is leading the way lower as weather improves and exports remain stagnant.
  • Friday’s report which showed more corn acres being planted would give the US a surplus of corn to feed that would cut into wheat use for feed and is a bearish factor.
  • Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Ukraine’s nuclear power plant was doing drills to prepare for possible emergency radiation exposure after the government said that Russia planted explosives at the power plant.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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