TFM Morning Update 8-21-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning but has backed off its overnight highs as the dry and hot forecast continues and stresses the crop.
  • The forecast for the next 7 days offers more rain chances in the Corn Belt than the previous week but is expected to be light, and temperatures are expected to drop later in the week.
  • According to Conab, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was 72% complete as of August 12 which was down from 86% this time a year ago. Rains have been delaying their progress.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non commercials as sellers of corn last week by 45,924 contracts increasing their net short position to 72,580 contracts.


  • Soybeans are significantly higher this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the hot and dry weather affects soybeans most directly as they fill pods.
  • While Chinese economic growth struggles with deflation and poor economic data, their food demand remains robust with November beans on the Dalian exchange trading at the equivalent of $19.11 a bushel, a new high for this year.
  • Chinese imports from the US fell by 63% from the previous year as they source their soybeans from Brazil.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 13,362 contracts as of August 15 reducing their net long position to 50,719 contracts.


  • While corn and soybeans trend higher, wheat is lower and has struggled to gain momentum on poor demand that is effecting global prices.
  • Ukraine is attempting to use a new “humanitarian corridor” to export grains that will hug the western coastline near Romania and Bulgaria.
  • Egypt’s total consumption of wheat is expected to reach between 19 and 20 mmt. They are expected to import 10 mmt to meet demand which is 50% of their total consumption.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds piling into their short position increasing it by 10,195 contracts, leaving them net short 65,590 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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