World Stocks-to-Use and Price Comparable to 2013  

What’s Happened…

The August WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand report) indicated a big increase in expectations for the U.S. corn crop and carryout. Yet on the world front, not much change was noted. World stocks-to-usage remain at their lowest level since 2013. In 2013, the low for December corn futures came in late fall at $4.12. As of this writing, December 2025 corn futures are trading near $4.06 with a contract low of $3.92.  

It gets challenging to believe that corn futures have much more downside when considering comparable ending stocks historically. In 13 years, the cost of production (which includes the cost of money and inflation of purchased inputs) suggests prices are too low. Bottom line is farmers do not have an appetite to sell corn at current price levels. It just doesn’t pay the bills. The opposite view is from the perspective of the buyer. End users continue to enjoy excellent value.  

Why this is Important…

A rule of thumb is to own a commodity when it is in the lower third of its expected price range and sell when it is in the upper third of its expected price range. Current prices suggest corn futures are in the lower third of their yearly trading range. Buyers, while not necessarily feeling urgency to purchase aggressively, will continue to buy as needed and may even add to purchases as usage (due to a low price) grows. Should something develop, such as weather concerns affecting harvest or South American production, then a heighted sense of aggressive and larger purchases will occur. For many corn growers, the question they are asking is what they should do with corn they are unable to store at harvest. 

You’ll have to weigh the cost of commercial storage, the risk of storing it on the ground, or leaving it stand in the field. For many, none of those alternatives is appealing. If you sell, consider re-ownership alternatives. If you are willing to take the same basic market risk of storage (market price fluctuation), purchasing futures is something to consider. However, if you’re one who wants to quantify your risk after selling, then purchase call options or enter a conservative strategy like a bull call spread. 

What can you do about it?

Weigh your options. Ask these simple questions. When do I need my cash flow? Am I willing to take on unlimited risk and pay storage costs? Am I willing to reinvest in ownership? If I do re-own, do I want unlimited potential and risk, or do I want a quantified risk? Begin the conversations soon so you can develop a strategic approach. Once harvest gets underway, your time to process strategy will be limited. Your concentration will be where it should be, harvesting.  

Find out what works for you…

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic. 

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

Author

Bryan Doherty