Corn: History Points to Lower Prices
What’s Happened…
The December 2026 corn futures contract peaked at $5.06 and is currently trading near $4.80. As uncertainty with the planting season and other variables become viewed as less impactful, the market tends to reflect this through lower prices. Planting progress this spring has been ahead of schedule. Despite various weather conditions that may have challenged farmers’ progress, there were not enough concerns to sustain a continued advance for prices. If using history as an indicator, corn prices generally decline into late summer. Keep in mind that every year is different and there are no certainties in future price action.
While past performance may not indicate future results, it’s interesting to view the data from Moore Research Services, Inc, a firm dedicated to historical research and historical analysis of futures markets. According to Moore, if September corn futures had been sold on May 21 and bought back on August 1, this position shows an average gain of $1,483 and has worked 14 of the last 15 years. This analysis is reflective of one futures contract and does not reflect margin calls that may have been required, commissions, or fees. The takeaway is that corn prices tend to drop as the growing season progresses. The exception year is 2012 when a drought engulfed the Corn Belt.
Why this is Important…
Awareness of what has typically happened historically may provide a bias for future price moves. The Midwest’s reputation as the breadbasket to the world has relevance. In part, this was derived from the dependability of crop production, which also means dependability of weather. Over the years, corn production has been an incredible success story. The reliability and quality of corn year in year out is an amazing reflection of improved technology, tillage practices, and overall excellence in farmers. This view favors lower prices and would align with historical data.
Yet, every year is different and has its challenges. Corn futures have been low for several years, leading to a growing demand base. Export sales are running well ahead of last year, reflecting a very robust world demand environment. The argument that low prices create demand has merit. Demand does not necessarily respond quickly when low prices occur. Over time, it does. Once the demand ship sets sail, it is hard to turn it around. Usually, the only thing that curbs demand is higher prices.
Yet, despite what appears to be adequate carryover (2.142 billion bushels) as recorded in the May WASDE report, it will take another year of good weather to replicate yields of the last two growing seasons. While one might argue that lower prices are in store for the 2026 crop, nothing should be taken for granted. The key from a marketing perspective is to have a balanced approach using the right tools to fit your farm and risk tolerances.
What can you do about it?
Preparation is key to great marketing. It takes time, energy, consistency, and execution. A fundamental bias for which direction prices may head may help to make timely sales at price levels that match supplies. In 2026, adequate carryover into the growing season suggests selling rallies and buying put options as a good marketing tool. Retaining ownership can be done through call options. The key is having balance. History points to lower prices, yet building demand and adverse weather could create a bullish scenario. Embrace volatility and strategy.
Find out what works for you…
Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.
About the Author: With the wisdom of over 36 years at Total Farm Marketing and following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of Brokerage Solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the markets and marketing tools, an excellent listener, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with their decisions.
The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.
Author
Bryan Doherty