Soybeans get a Boost

What’s Happened…

Soybean futures recently traded at their highest level in eight months. Support comes from small declines in weekly crop ratings and, perhaps more importantly, a positive biofuels mandate. It was anticipated the Trump administration might not raise biomass-based diesel volumes to higher levels after failing to raise the mandates earlier in spring. However, increases from the Biden administration’s 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.56 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027 were considered price supportive and a driver for longer–term demand.

Why this is Important…

World supplies of soybeans are near record–large after Brazil and Argentina harvested large crops. Demand from China has shifted primarily to Brazil. Higher biofuel mandates coupled with a decline in U.S. planted soybean acres helps to offset the negative influence of big South American crops. U.S. soybean harvested acres for the 2025 growing season is estimated at 82.7 million, down from last year’s 86.1 million, a reduction of 3.4 million acres. A record yield at 52.5 bushels is forecast by the USDA according to the June WASDE report. The forecasted carryout for the year ahead is 295 million bushels compared to the current marketing year’s estimate of 350. The bottom line is, with higher mandates for biomass diesel volumes, there is little to no margin of error in producing this year’s soybean crop. The market is reflecting this through higher prices, as weekly crop ratings have slipped. Is 52.5 bps (bushels per acre) achievable? 

What can you do about it?

Soybean farmers should carefully monitor the market for signals of a top. This could come in the form of technical indicators and changes in crop prospects. However, trying to guess a top can be a challenge. Soybean prices can quickly move. Exploring the use of put options to establish a price floor is a strategy that leaves cash bushels un-priced and open to higher prices. Forward selling through cash contracts and then retaining ownership with call options or call spread strategies should also be explored. Strive to create a marketing balance so that, no matter where prices move, you are keeping yourself protected.

Find out what works for you…

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions. 

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation. 

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Bryan Doherty