TFM Sunrise Update 03-03-2022


Corn futures were mixed overnight with May up 6-1/2 cents to 7.31-1/2 and Dec down 1-1/2 cents to 6.07-3/4.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 600,000 to 1.20 mil tons for old crop, zero to 400,000 tons for new crop.  New highs in crude oil occurred overnight, and the dollar is up more than 20 basis points. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher.  U.S. stocks are at the top of this week’s trading range on dovish comments by U.S. Fed Chairman Powell.  The Russian war against Ukraine may be more important than inflation which could reduce the number of times Fed raises rates.  China has stepped in and raised concern about Ukraine civilian deaths.  On Wednesday, Managed funds were sold 4,000 corn, and are net long an estimated 424,000 contracts.


The soy complex is firm this morning, though well off last night’s highs.   May bean are 7 cents higher to 16.70, 29 cents off last night’s high of 16.99.   November beans are up 12 cents to 14.64-1/2 vs last night’s high of 14.83-1/2.   May meal is up 2.50 to 450.50.  May soyoil is up .37 to 76.24.  A new contract high was reached last night at 77.33.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 600,000 to 1.05 mil tons for old crop beans, zero to 600,000 to 1.30 mil tons for new crop; 100,000 to 250,000 tons for old crop soymeal, zero to 150,000 tons for new crop; And, for soyoil, 5,000 to 30,000 tons for old crop, zero to 30,000 tons for new crop.   Yesterday, USDA announced a 266 metric ton sale of U.S. soybean sales to China and 264 mt to Unknown.  On Wednesday, Managed funds sold 12,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal. and 2,000 soyoil, and are now estimated to be long 183,000 soybeans, 88,000 soymeal and 100,000 soyoil.  Dalian soybean, palmoil, soyoil and corn were higher.  Soymeal was lower.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 148 ringgit (+2.22%) at 6808.

Like what you’re reading?

Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!


Nearby wheat futures were up sharply overnight on talk of short position liquidation and margin calls.  March contracts are leading the way with Chicago up 60-1/2 cents to 11.19, KC up 61-1/2 cents to 11.35; And, MPLS up 60-3/4 cents to a new high of 11.20.  Prices gapped higher overnight after reversing and settling Wednesday far below the sessions’ new highs.  The May contracts are 52-1/2 higher to 11.20-1/2 in Chicago, 30 higher to 11.04-1/4 in KC; And, 13 higher to 10.71-1/4 in MPLS.  The back months are all sagging with trade in the red this morning.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 650,000 tons for old crop, 50,000 to 275,000 tons for new crop.  On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 17,000 Chicago wheat and are now estimate be long 51,000.  Trade reaction to the threat to Ukraine and Russia’s wheat supply-lines to the rest of the world will keep the wheat market on edge.  Canada, one of the world’s top wheat exporters won’t be able to fill supply shortfalls caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after drought withered its own grain inventories.


Cattle futures are called mixed.  The trend has turned lower, fueled by the strong move in grain markets and poor price direction.  The weak technical picture keeps the selling pressure in the front end of the live cattle market.  Apr live cattle closed under the 100-day moving average for 2nd consecutive day, but traded within Tuesday’s trading range as prices consolidated.  The cash trade trend will be closely watched this week, as a larger supply on heavy weight cattle may still act as a limit on the cash market.  Retail values have been trending lower, also limiting cash bids.  At the close, boxed beef prices were lower, (choice: -.83 to 256.68, select: -1.89 to 251.52) with demand light at 144 loads.  The strong price movement again on Tuesday in the grain markets keeps the pressure on the feeder market.  The Feeder Cash Index was .24 lower to 159.67, and trading at a discount to the futures market.


Hog futures opening calls are for steady to higher after a sharp recovery off recent lows as the fundamentals outweigh the technical selling.  April hogs tested the 20-day moving average near $103 and held this point again yesterday triggering some short covering and price recovery.  Prices pushed toward the 10-day moving average, but were held in check into the close.  Pork cutout values have been trending higher overall.   Cash was supportive with the National Direct morning trade marking a base price of 88.59, up .22 from Monday and the Cash Lean Hog Index was 0.69 higher to 99.09. The Apr futures is still holding a 7.110  premium to the index, but feels more manageable give the strength in the cash market.  The fundamentals stay supportive overall on a tighter hog supply overall, supported by strong retail and improving cash values. The market is still in a strong uptrend.


Matthew Strelow

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates