CORN
Corn futures were lower overnight with nearby May corn down a nickel to 7.43-1/2 wile trending sideways atop it’s somewhat bruised bullish chart pattern. The nearby contract, like crude are now trading below the 20-day moving average for the first time since January. December corn was down 2-1/4 cents to 3 to 6.62-1/2. On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 corn easing their net long position to an estimated 383,000 contracts. Choppy action is expected to continue into the 11AM release of the USDA March Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports. Trade estimates for 2022 acreage is right around the USDA Outlook Forum baseline of 92 mil. Quarterly Stocks average guess is 7.877 bil bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed overnight. May beans are up 4-1/2 cents to 16.68-3/4. Like May corn and crude oil, the nearby bean contract is now trading below the 20-day moving average for
the first time since January. Nov was up 2 to 14.70-3/4. May Meal is down 2.40 to 4.76.50; And, May soy oil is up .88 to 73.33. On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 17,000 soybeans, 6,000 soymeal and 8,000 soy oil. They are now estimated long 164,000 soybeans, 109,000 soymeal and 74,000 soy oil. The average trade estimate for 2022 soybean acreage 88.728 mil for Thursday’s USDA report. Quarterly Stocks average guess is 1.902 bil bu.
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WHEAT
Wheat futures continued to soften overnight, losing 15 cents across the board as we move into the end of the month. May Chicago and KC futures traded 25 to 30 cent ranges and are covering near overnight session lows this morning at 10.42 and 10.55-1/2, respectively. The nearby contracts are following suite with row crops by trading below 20-day moving averages for the first time since January. USDA, on Monday afternoon rated the KS wheat crop 32% Good-to-excellent versus 25% last week. OK was 18% compared to 21% previously, TX 7% versus 6%, CO 11% vs 19%, NE 27% vs 36%. May MPLS wheat fell 15 cents to 10.64-1/4. In addition to March moisture in the U.S., weighing on sentiment is talk of slow U.S. exports and India, EU and Australia exports offsetting the drop in Black Sea. Egypt said they are done buying wheat until May. On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 17,000 Chicago wheat and are net short 11,000 contracts. The average trade estimate for Thursday’s USDA All wheat Quarterly Stocks is 47.771.
CATTLE
Cattle are called mixed. Futures traded moderately lower to start the week as the market digested Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and selling pressure in grain markets on Monday. April cattle prices stayed relatively choppy, consolidating at the top of last week’s strength on Monday. The grain trade will likely have some impact on the cattle markets this week, so expect some volatility as that market move towards a key USDA report on Thursday with grain stocks and planting intentions numbers. Cash trade was quiet as usual to start the week, as bids and asking values were undefined. Expectation will be for mostly steady cash, supported by a firming retail tone. April and June cattle will likely stay tied to the cash market, as April options expire this week on Friday, and the futures is getting in its last stages of trade. Choice carcasses gained $5.36 last week on an improving demand tone. On Monday, beef prices closed higher with Choice carcasses gaining 1.23 to 263.87 and Select was 4.18 higher to 256.32. Load count was very light at 70 loads. Feeder cattle had the most to lose with Friday’s Cattle on Feed report but selling pressure in the grain markets help support feeders in general. The market may have been anticipating the heavier placement numbers on the USDA report, as the larger total may be due to dryness in southern plains wheat pastures and the need to move those cattle onto the feedlot.
HOGS
Hogs are called mixed to lower. Hog futures saw mixed, bull spreading trade on Monday as the buyers stayed active in the front end of the market. A strong demand and overall cash tone support the market as it looks towards Wednesday’s USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. April futures held the price gains from the end of last week and a 4.325 premium over the cash index with only 3 weeks before expiration. Pork retail values were trending higher last week and got additional support at midday Monday. Pork values traded 3.50 higher but lost that strength, closing 2.49 lower to 269.81 on a load count of 269 loads. The weak afternoon close will likely pressure the market on the open today. Cash markets have stayed firm in response to the strong retail values and trading at historical strength. National Direct trade at midday was 7.17 lower to 103.11, with the 5-day average was at 104.79. The cash trend may be starting to soften and will need to be watched.
Author
Scott Masters