TFM Sunrise Update 04-20-2021

CORN

Corn futures traded higher overnight led soaring new crop.  Dec was up 5-1/2 cents to a new high of 5.25-3/4.  Nearby May corn fell just short of $6, at 5.99-1/4 on gains of 7-1/4 cents.  July was up 7 cents to 5.87-1/2.  Grains are getting a boost from continued fundamental and technical support, as well as a lower dollar, which was down again overnight.  Though very early in the growing season, the U.S. corn crop is 8% planted, according to yesterday’s Weekly USDA Crop Progress data.  The trade estimate was 9% versus 4% a week ago, 6% last year, and 8% average.  U.S. emergence was 2% versus NA% a week ago, 1% last year, and 1% average.  Questions remain about Brazil’s second corn crop.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures jumped to double-digit gains for the second consecutive overnight session on follow-through pushing into new contract highs.  Nearby May made it to 14.72-1/4 on gains of 22-1/2 cents.  July hit 14.58-1/4; and, Nov reached 12.96 after rallying 12 cents.  U.S. soybeans planting is 3% complete, in line with the trade estimate versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and the 2% average.   Bean meal and soyoil are also higher this morning.  The World climate summit this week could result in higher U.S. green fuel which could increase soyoil biofuel use.

Brazil has suspended import duties on soy, corn, soybean meal, and soybean oil until the end of the year, the Agriculture Ministry said, as the country seeks to slow inflation fanned by rising global commodities prices.  China’s March soybean imports from Brazil plunged as rain delayed some shipments from the world’s top exporter, but U.S. bean imports rocketed more than fourfold as delayed cargoes arrived, hitting the highest monthly total since December 2016. The world’s biggest buyer of soybeans imported 315,334 tons from Brazil in March, down 85% from 2.1 mil a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Custom showed on Tuesday. The Brazilian imports were the lowest since January 2017.  More than offsetting that slide, China imported 7.18 mil tons of soybeans from the U.S. in March, up 320% from 1.71 mil in the previous year.

WHEAT

Wheat futures were up 4 to 6 cents overnight, lifted by the strength in row crops and a lower dollar.  In addition, morning frost and freezing conditions today through Thursday threatens to burn back crops in the HRW region and West TX through the corn belt and far northern Delta and into VA and northern NC.  Spring wheat futures are near Monday’s new highs with July up 5-1/2 cents to 6.77.   July Chicago was up 6 cents to 6.59-3/4.  July KC wheat got to 6-23-3/4.  U.S. Winter Wheat was 10% headed versus 5% last week, 13% a year ago, 14% average, according to USDA’s Weekly Progress update.  U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 53% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 53% a week ago and 57% a year ago; 30% fair (30% last week, 30% a year ago); 17% poor to very poor (17% last week, 13% a year ago).  U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 19% (trade estimate was 17%) versus 11% last week, 7% a year ago, 12% average.  Tender activity showed France looking to import 45,000 tons of Romanian wheat.  Japan seeks 85,110 tons of optional-origin wheat.

CATTLE

Cattle calls are for choppy action to start the day.   Futures finished lower for the 7th consecutive day on long liquidation and profit-taking to begin the week.  Strong losses in the feeder cattle market stemming from the rally in feed prices added to the selling pressure.   Cattle prices did manage to close above session lows, possibly signaling a value as selling pressure seemed to dry up after the early session push lower.  The market appears to be finding a bottom, but that process takes time.  Carcass values stayed supportive with Choice closing .12 higher to 276.17, and Select .03 higher at 269.13.  Choice carcasses are trading $56.00 over the 5-year average should help support the cash market.  Cash trade is undeveloped with expectations are for steady to higher due to strong carcass values.  We look for cash to be the key for cattle price direction toward the end of the week.  The USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday will keep some choppiness in the market overall.

HOGS

Hogs are called steady to higher on follow-through from strength yesterday.  Despite weak technical signals, hog futures showed signs that the sell-off last week was overdone.  Even though the market trade was higher, prices stayed within the trading range of Friday’s lower trade.  The key will be follow through as the market tries to confirm a trend.  Global hog supplies are at a 45 year low, and the demand for pork and products are going to stay supportive.  Carcass values were higher on Monday closing up 1.99 to 114.06 on moderate movement of 328 loads. This demand trend supports the cash market, which is still trading at multi-year highs. The Lean Hog Index stays firm, gaining .21 to 103.24. Last week was the 12th consecutive week the index has trended higher.  We view the market as building a potential bottom, with the $100 level as support under the June contract. The next few trading sessions will be a key to see that the market has turned.

 

Author

Matthew Strelow

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