TFM Sunrise Update 06-16-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, June 20, 2022, in observance of Juneteenth Day


Corn futures traded two-sided overnight with a firm tone.  The nearby July contract is up 2 cents this morning to 7.76.  Dec is up 3-1/2 to 7.24-1/2.   Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 100,000 to 500,000 tons for old crop, 50,000 to 400,000 for new crop.  Outside markets are mixed with crude trading a two-week low, stock index futures down 500 points to a new low on fear the Fed action will push the U.S. into a recession and the dollar steady.  Gold, silver and sugar are higher.  Copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower.  The U.S. Midwest will be hot and dry the next 10 days.  After that, GFS is cooler while EU continues to be warm and dry into the first few days of July.  Spot basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast firmed on Wednesday, as cash prices continued to rise and roil the grain trade along river terminals, traders said.


Soybean futures were mixed overnight.  July beans were are up 3-1/4 cents to 16.97 this morning despite yesterday’s cancellation of 100 mt U.S. soybean sales from unknown.  Nov is up 2-3/4 cents to 15.26-1/4.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 100,000 to 500,000 tons for old crop, 100,000 to 600,000 for new crop.  Brazilian farmer is selling old crop beans to make room for corn.  Dalian soymeal and all veg oils are lower.  Informa estimates U.S. 2022 soybean acres at 88.7 vs USDA March estimate of 90.9 and 87.2 last year.  Spot basis bids for soybeans were steady to weak at processors and interior elevators around the eastern half of the U.S. Midwest early on Wednesday, grain dealers said.

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Wheat futures were mixed overnight.  Sept Chicago wheat is up 2 cents to 10.65 this morning.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 600,000 tons.  Sept KC wheat is down a penny to 11.39-1/4.  Sept MPLS is up 1-1/2 cents to 12.03.  Wheat may be finding resistance from instability in the U.S. stocks amid new recession fears.  Dry U.S. south plains weather will
speed up harvest.  Better weather should help .U.S HRS crop but Canada prairie weather is still wet.  Informa estimates U.S. 2022 wheat acres at 46.4 vs 46.7 last year.  Spring wheat acres are estimated at 10.5 vs USDA March estimate of 11.2 and 11.4 last year.  Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat shipped by rail to the U.S. Gulf eased on Wednesday morning, with recently harvested supplies satisfying demand at export terminals.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow-through from Wednesday’s higher trade.  Live cattle futures starting with a sharp price drop Monday on concerns over the economy with higher interest rates.  Consumer spending is an ongoing concern, especially for higher priced cuts of beef.  So far, beef demand is stable with exports still strong year over year.  Technically, futures are still trading within their respective 50 and 200 day averages.  Into the month of July, futures market tends to see seasonal strength until September.


Hog futures are called steady to higher on the heels of Wednesday’s higher traded fueled by a jump in cash.  July futures are the new lead month and hold a discount to cash.  Technically, July is now finding support from the contract’s 40-day MA.  The trade will watch slaughter numbers and cutout values to determine demand and market direction.  Meanwhile, hot temps look to offer support.


Matt Strelow

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