Corn futures were down 5-1/4 cents overnight in March to 3.82-1/4 and 3-1/2 cents to 3.99 in Dec 2020 corn. Prices are responding poorly across the board to the Phase One trade deal until there are actual sales to China. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 300,000 to 700,000 tons; 200,000 to 250,000 for 2020-21 crop.
Soybean futures are lower this morning after a double-digit lower close following the trade deal. We feel prices received good news yesterday in the signing with China by the Trump administration for the trade deal. Yet, prices moved lower on a lack of supportive details for beans in the deal. Strong crush data pressed soy oil lower and that’s weighing on the complex, too. March beans were down 4-1/2 cents overnight to 9.24-14 which is the first time that contract as fallen below its 40 and 100-day moving average in more than a month. Nov was down 2-1/2 cents to 9.56-1/4. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 300,000 to 700,000 tons; 200,000 to 250,000 for 2020-21 crop.
Winter wheat futures retreated overnight after gaining some good upward momentum the first half of this week and breaking into their highest levels in multiple months on Wednesday. March Chicago wheat is down 9 cents to 8.64-1/4. March KC wheat plummeted 10-1/2 cents to 4.86. Spring wheat is steady this morning. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 500,000 tons.
Cattle futures are called mixed with market settling into a choppy cadence near the highs built since November. Expectations are for steady to higher cash. A small amount traded $125 live in the north which is steady for the past several weeks. Beef prices rebounded a bit this week with choice over $3/cwt in the past week.
Hog futures are called choppy. Look for mixed trade again today, as the market decides if the deal with China is long term friendly. Based on yesterday’s price action across the ag complex, the market was unimpressed with the trade deal. For the week, February futures are up 60 cents with April futures up 85 cents. The agreement does state that China has agreed to broaden the list of pork products eligible for import to include processed products such as hams and certain types of offal. Futures have reached oversold levels once again on the daily and weekly charts which implies at a minimum the market is due for a bounce.