TFM Sunrise Update 1-24-20


Corn futures were down 2-1/2 cents overnight after surging to 2-1/2 month highs on Thursday. Chinese corn imports for December were 730,000 tons, which was up 76% from 2018. Weekly Export Sales might support the move this morning. Trade estimates range between 500,000 and 950,000 for 2019-20 corn; 200,000 and 250,000 tons for 2020-21 crop.


Soybean futures were down 3-1/2 cents overnight while keeping a defensive posture heading into the end of the month. The technical picture looks challenged with losses yesterday for the third consecutive session. Futures may have moved low enough for traders to begin buying either through the offset of short positions or going long the market for the near-term. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 600,000 to 1.10 mil tons for 2019-20 crop; 100,000 to 200,000 tons for 2020-21 crop.


Wheat futures are lower this morning, but remain in an uptrend overall. Winter wheat contracts eased 4 to 5 cents overnight. New news is lacking. Chi rebounded yesterday after losses on Wednesday and snow cover in parts of the Midwest is viewed as supportive. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 300,000 to 700,000 tons for 2019-20 crop; zero to 100,000 tons for 2020-21 crop.


Cattle futures are called mixed to lower after yesterday’s poor technical showing, in which prices broke support and closed decisively under the critical 21, 40 and 50-day moving averages. Yesterday was the lowest close in Apr cattle since mid Nov.


Hog futures are called steady to higher on follow through from yesterday. Traders appear to be buying hogs and selling cattle. Big daily slaughters keep upside potential in check, particularly with the Feb contract running 7.00 premium to cash.


Carol Tillmann

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