TFM Sunrise Update 1-31-20


Corn futures begin the first week of the new month, down 2 cents amid a weak tone across the commodity markets. Corn prices should hold based on basis levels as well as good export sales the last two weeks. However, the continued fallout from coronavirus is a concern that is weighing on sentiment despite ideas that China will need to import food during the outbreak. March corn is now sitting beneath all its Moving averages while trying to maintain a sideways course. Weekly Export Inspections will be out today, but may be somewhat negated by a bounce in dollar from Friday’s sharp drop.


Soybean futures made new lows last night in a bid to extend the market’s daily losing streak to 10. Mar beans lost 3-1/4 cents to get to 8.68-1/4, that contract’s lowest point since May 24, 2019. The contract marked a hard week last week, technically,  finishing close to 30 cents lower. Coronavirus and good weather in South America remain negative factors.


Wheat futures were down a nickel overnight, adding to a technical picture that looks a little challenging after last week when Mar Chi lost 19-3/4 cents. Yet, the uptrend remains intact and this week could be a deciding factor whether buyers will step in front of the market and purchase near support or if they allow prices to drop under support which would likely lead to long liquidation. Shrinking forecasts for Australia’s wheat prospects, lower exports from Russia, and the latest Egyptian wheat tender sourcing French wheat are all on the trade’s radar.


Cattle futures are called mixed to lower. It was a rough week for cattle futures and it looks likely that they’ll start the week steady to softer expecting steady to weaker cash. Both the technicals and cash market are somewhat iffy. Apr cattle retraced to near 50% of their September low losing over 4.00 last week.


Hog futures are called steady to lower on follow through after a horrible week last week in which prices were limit down Thursday and then more than 4.00 lower on Friday. New contract lows were forged with liquidation of long contracts due to coronavirus. Efforts to concoct a vaccine for African swine fever also leaves prices vulnerable to a drop and further weakness this week.


Carol Tillmann

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates