TFM Sunrise Update 1-9-20


Corn futures are up 2 this morning with firming seen across the grains and oilseed complex overnight amid reduced tensions in the Middle East. Look for quiet, choppy trade again today in front of Friday’s report. The range of analyst’s estimate for total U.S. corn production is 13.217 and 13.701 bil bushels with a yield of 166.2. It appears that both bulls and bears established their positions and unless there is new news, the market will likely continue to drift. We do expect export sales to begin picking in the weeks ahead as Brazil has pretty much tapped out its inventory. This week’s data has been delayed until tomorrow due to a snow storm in DC.


Soybean futures were up 3 to 4 cents overnight after managing to stay above their January lows on Wednesday. Expectations that tomorrow’s report could be slightly friendly from a demand perspective as well as a small decline in yield is noted. Meal and soyoil is also firmer this morning.


Wheat futures were up 4 to 5 cents overnight. Prices rebounded nicely yesterday but continue to consolidate awaiting further news to provide direction. Friday’s report will likely indicate ample world inventories. This could mean that the uptrend in wheat that has been in place since early September could be in jeopardy if friendly news isn’t found either on the report or after.


Cattle futures are likely to pick up where they left off yesterday and that was mixed on futures closing prices. Expectations that cash will trade steady this week but probably not higher leaves the upside potential limited.


Hog futures are called mixed to weaker. We continue to argue that the Feb contract holds too much premium to the lean hog index and so do the back months in comparison to Feb hogs. Get current with the recommendations if behind.


Carol Tillmann

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