Corn futures are unchanged this morning while holding atop a month-long rally off of contract lows set on September 9. We’ll look for two-sided trade in front of the much anticipated October Supply and Demand report. This will be the USDA’s first report indicating actual field surveys and not implied ear weights. Pre-report expectations are for yield of 166.8 bu an acre which would be down from the September estimate of 168.2. In the meantime, Mother Nature began unleashing the heavily advertised winter storm across the Dakotas overnight. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 500,000 to 800,000 tons. December corn is at 3.94, more than 40 cents above that contract’s low of 3.52-1/4 and within 8 cents of the contract’s 200-day moving average resistance at 4.01-3/4. The 100-day MA is at 4.09-1/4.
Bean futures were firm overnight with Nov up 2-1/4 cents to 9.26, mid-range of Wednesday’s higher trading range, supported by expected yield loss from the storm moving across the northern region of the U.S. We’ll look for two-sided trade in front of the report due out at 11:00 in which the USDA will estimate this year’s crop production. Yield is estimated at 47.3 bu an acre, which would be down from the September estimate of 47.9. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Exports are 1.30 to 1.80 mil tons. For Nov beans, yesterday’s new high for the move at 9.33-3/4 is the bullish target for that contract today.
Wheat futures are called steady. Prices have recovered nicely this week, lately, but the Dec Chi has run into overhead resistance at the 100-day moving average at 5.03, which is where the contract is this morning on gains of 2-1/2 cents. That level of resistance is converging with the contract’s 200-day at 5.04-3/4. Today’s Supply and Demand report should show projected carryout at 1.014 bil bu, which will be the same as the September estimate. World projected carryout should decline slightly from the September estimate of 286.5 mil with the average pre-report estimate at 285.7. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Exports are 300,000 to 600,000 tons.
Cattle futures are called mixed to higher on follow through. The technical picture continues to look strong and expectations for steady to higher cash is providing underlying support. Firmer boxed beef prices provided underlying support with asking prices 1.00 to 2.00 higher. A winter storm could provide support.
Hog futures are called firmer on follow through. The technical picture looks friendly this week with a big reversal yesterday and follow through today. Resistance on Dec hogs is at the 100-day moving average. The bigger picture perspective continues to suggest good demand and the likelihood that due to higher grain prices this spring and low hog prices this summer that supplies will tighten into next year.