TFM Sunrise Update 10-17-19


Corn futures were up overnight as buying interest emerges on price dips. Dec corn regained a nickel to 3.96-3/4 and is posed to make another run at getting back above $4.00 where the contract’s 200-day moving average resides. Overall, though, look for consolidation as Weekly Export Sales gets pushed back to Friday and harvest pressure exerts itself on the market as farmers take advantage of periodic breaks in the weather. A weaker dollar is viewed as supportive, technicals, though pointed in a generally positive direction, may be becoming overbought in row crops.


Bean futures also regained composure overnight with buyers stepping in at the contract’s upward trending 10-day moving average in the Nov contract. Nov rallied as much as 9 cents to 9.37. Support may be near 9.10. Resistance over the last few years has been near 9.50. Market views are mixed for the market. Uncertainty over US and China trade deal may be limiting upside in prices. A drop in global protein demand and favorable start to 2020 South America crops could also limit the upside in prices., and talk of lower US soybean crush margins and export interest offers additional resistance. Meanwhile, USDA rated the US 2019 soybean crop 54 pct good to excellent versus 66 last year this week. 26 percent of the crop is harvested vs 49 average and 37 last year. There were small gains in MI and the Delta while small declines in IL, MN, NE and SD. USDA did drop the US 2018 and 2019 crop sizes in their recent reports. That helps support prices.


Winter wheat futures forged new highs for the move overnight following a positive close yesterday. Short covering may occur and consequently push prices higher. Egypt was a buyer of French, Ukraine and Russia wheat on Wednesday. This may be helping prices. Late US spring wheat harvest and concern over quality and the reality of lower soft red winter wheat acres is beginning to take hold. Chi Dec wheat was up a dime to 5.23-1/4 overnight, KC up 6-3/4 to 4.31-3/4, and: Dec Mpls up 4-1/2 to 5.55.


Cattle futures are called mixed. The market may be termed oversold on technical indicators but the overall trend remains firm. Yet, futures ended the day mixed in feeders yesterday, while the live market found good strength, particularly Oct. That being said, cash will have to find renewed strength to encourage futures to continue to move upward at week’s end.


Hog futures are called mixed. Bear spreading was noted yesterday with Dec now the lead month in running a near 7.00 premium to cash. Expect further bear spreading today.


Carol Tillmann

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