TFM Sunrise Update 10-18-19


Corn futures were down 3 cents overnight, putting the exclamation point on a see-saw week of trading that saw Dec corn, now at 3.91-3/4 etch a new 2-month high at 4.02-1/2. This week’s low mark was put in at 3.87-1/2 for the contract. Wet weather in the forecast will likely slow harvest and keep corn in the field from drying down, particularly in the north. Private estimates are suggesting 100 million plus bushels of corn loss due to frost this past week. Farmer selling is expected to see an uptick as harvest progresses and prices stay firm. Trade estimates for this morning’s delayed Weekly Export Sales are 400,000 to 800,000 tons.


Bean futures were up 2 cents overnight, underpinned by less-than-ideal weather in South America, expectations for wet forecasts slowing U.S. harvest, and continued expectations for China to be a more aggressive buyer in the weeks and months ahead. Trade estimates for this morning’s delayed Weekly Export Sales are 900,000 to 1.60 mil tons.  Nov beans, at 9.33-1/2 this morning, continue to find good support at the contract’s 10-day moving average drawn at, as of today 9.28-1/2. For the week, Nov is down about 7 cents from Monday’s settlement.


Wheat futures eased 3 cents overnight following an impressive technical day yesterday with futures reaching their highest level since mid-July. Short covering may ensue, especially if the market believes that wet weather in the forecast will delay winter wheat planting, and China follows through with ‘phase 1’ of a trade deal to buy U.S. wheat. Trade estimates for this morning’s delayed Weekly Export Sales are 250,000 to 550,000 tons. For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 15 cents for Soft Red Winter up 10 in the Hard Red Winter up 3 for Hard Red Spring.


Cattle futures are called mixed. The markets had a good run in recent weeks and we wouldn’t be surprised if hedge pressure develops today as producers take advantage of the recent price rally. Additionally, we would be shocked if traders began to move out of long positions. Meat shortages in China are beginning to trigger protest from citizens who have seen pork prices double. A reopened Tyson plant might coincide with sharp increases in demand for beef. A few cash cattle sales were reported in the north from $175-178 dressed, $3 to $6/cwt higher than last week. No sales have been reported in Texas or Kansas. The remaining cattle are priced $113 and higher live and $180 dressed.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower on expectations for increased hedge pressure and the December contract’s huge premium to cash. Daily slaughters remain large. The big picture looks supportive on improved exports and expectations that the U.S. supplies could tighten into next year, but many are questioning China’s ability to fill the void of pork needed for consumption.


Carol Tillmann

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates