TFM Sunrise Update 10-22-19


Corn futures were up overnight while maintaining the up-trend after USDA on Monday afternoon said only 86% of this year’s corn crop is mature versus the 5-year average of 97%. 30% of the crop is harvested versus the 5-year average of 4% percent. The trade was looking for 33% to 36%. Dec corn is again within a dime of $4.00, trading up 2-3/4 cents this morning to 3.90 and is holding trend-line support seen a few cents below.


Bean futures rallied a dime overnight as this year’s harvest, at 46% trails the 5-year average of 64%. This wasn’t a bullish surprise since traders were expecting 38% to 42% completion rate, but still supportive. Crop ratings stayed at 54% in the good-to-excellent category. A 6-10 day forecast indicates drier conditions and should allow harvest to pick up after wet weather moves through over the next 24-48 hours. Nov beans, at 9.44 continue to find good support at the contract’s upward trending 10-day moving average and is now testing last week’s new high of 9.45-1/2. Beyond there, the high from June 18 at 9.48 is the next bullish target price. The market may be getting a boost from relief measures announced by Hong Kong in order to boost the economy there.


Wheat futures were two-sided overnight and look to favor the higher side heading into today’s session along with firmness in row crops. Winter wheat contracts, up 4 cents are regaining their composure after making new multi-month highs in Monday’s trade only to give back their gains and close loser. Recent global tenders offer support. Dec Cbot and KC wheat contracts are looking up at yesterday’s intra-session highs as a bullish target at 5.35 and 4.37-1/4, respectively.


Cattle futures are called steady to potentially higher. Expectations for steady to higher cash this week is providing underlying support. The market may be in overbought territory on charts, and traders could be quick to move out of long positions If cash doesn’t follow through this week, so caution is warranted, particularly with better weather for Plains in the forecast.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher. We are concerned that Dec is still holding too much premium to the index. Expectations for continued good export sales activity continues to strengthen back months with both June and July trading above 93.00.


Lisa Heder

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