TFM Sunrise Update 10-3-19


Corn futures traded steady overnight with rising stochastics signaling an overbought market. We will look for two-sided trade as the market tries to determine whether or not expectations for smaller yield will be offset by harvest pressure and additional farmer selling. Wet weather is still an issue in the northern two-thirds of the Midwest for harvest, but drier weather in the forecast for next week could mean more harvest gets underway. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 400,000 to 800,000 tons.  8 9 1.4


Soybean futures were flat/weak overnight. We are encouraged with yesterday’s small losses after two sharp gains the previous two session as technical activity continues to look strong. Demand remains strong as well highlighted by interest from private Chinese buyers. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 900,000 to 1.40 mil tons. Technically, Nov beans, trading at 9.13 this morning, remain situated above the contract’s 200-day moving average at 9.11.


Wheat futures were unchanged in Chi, down 3 in KC overnight on follow through after a weak session yesterday in both KC and Chi. Mpls, while closing 3-4 cents lower bounced well off its lows of 10 or more cents weaker for the session, but are 3 to 4 lower this morning. Condition concerns will continue to provide underlying support for spring wheat. However, the market has slumped which could trigger some downward technical selling if near-term support is broken. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 600,000 tons.


Cattle futures are called mixed to higher. Technicals look firm, and expectations for steady to higher cash and a big split between the choice and cut values all suggest prices will hold or move higher. A few cattle sold in Kansas late at $107/cwt amid larger showlists this week.


Hog futures are called mixed. Bear spreading was noted yesterday and likely will continue today as the front months remain too strong a premium to the index. The market traded sharply lower yesterday before closing well of the lows and managed to stay above Monday’s low.  66.120 for the Dec contract, or near the 40-day moving average is a bearish target should selling become prevalent.


Lisa Heder

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