TFM Sunrise Update 10-30-19


Corn futures were unchanged overnight and basically for the week so far, too as market participants refrain from pushing prices very far in either direction. There is a lot of higher moisture corn in the fields and many growers are not in any hurry to get it out, so look for the market to remain in consolidation mode. Weekly Ethanol Stats will be out mid-session, exports tomorrow morning. In tender activity, S. Korea seeks 140,000 tons of optional-origin corn. Elsewhere, the South American weather forecast for the 6 to 10 day period has rains across much of Argentina and most of Brazil with only the northern regions missing out. Temps are seen running below average in Argentina and average to above in Brazil over the next 10 days. And, Chinese corn prices continue to rally partly due to recovering feed demand and bad weather in producing areas like Heilongjian.


Soybean futures were firm overnight, climbing 2 cents back into the mid-section of Tuesday’s lower trading ranges.  Momentum studies favor an outlook for sideways to lower, yet there is favorable news in the form of weather and trade talks ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the APEC meetings in Chili in the middle of November, so choppy, two-sided action can be expected in a lightly traded market. Up in Canada, muddy, rutted fields are the norm across all of Manitoba, particularly for soybean harvest; many producers are waiting for wet ground to freeze over to support machinery traffic and reduce compaction; overall estimated harvest progress is 85% complete, below the 3-year average of 94% for fourth week October.


Wheat futures were down 3 cents in Chicago overnight, 1-1/2 cents in KC after settling fractionally lower on Tuesday. Prices are unable to maintain any kind of positive traction, even with Egyptian tenders propping up the global export market. So far, Egypt has purchased 3.605 million tonnes of wheat with 50.4% coming from Russia, 21.2% from Ukraine, 20% from Romania, and 8% from France. In the U.S., it is getting late enough in the season that we believe some winter wheat acres, potentially up to 10%, may not get planted.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher as cutouts continue to move upward, and futures continue to trend in the same direction. Packers will need to push purchases this week. Cattle owners will ignore the October live cattle contract when pricing asking prices for this week’s offerings. Instead they will be pricing par to the December contract which settled at 116.825 yesterday.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower, after bear spreading occurred yesterday. Daily slaughter continues to run large with yesterday’s figure at 490,000. The market was sharply lower yesterday with Feb hogs falling to that contract’s lowest close since October 8, leaving the market technically oversold.


Carol Tillmann

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