CORN

Corn futures traded two-sided overnight and are unchanged from last Friday’s close at 4.06-3/4 in the Dec contract.  For the week, the contract has traded to a new high of 4.28 with a range low at 4.01-3/4.  Talk of an overbought market and the removal of some weather premium from Brazil’s outlook is leading to a softer landing for the market into the weekend.  Due to Veterans Day holiday, U.S. weekly export sales will be delayed until 7:30 AM (Central) this morning and the CFTC Commit of Traders report until Monday.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 700,000 to 1.60 mil tons.  Managed Money is net long an estimated 339,000 corn contracts after selling 5,000 yesterday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures were mixed overnight between 11.49-1/4 and 11.39-1/2 (Jan) and up about 45 cents for the week.  November futures, at 11.40, go off the board today.  Managed Funds were net sellers of about 5,000 bean contracts on Thursday and are net long an estimated 284,000 beans, 97,000 soymeal, and; 112,000 soyoil.  A lack of new U.S. sales to China and talk of increased showers in west Argentina and central Brazil offer some resistance into the end of the week.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 800,000 to 1.80 mil tons for beans, 100,000 to 400,000 tons for meal, and; 30,000 to 90,000 tons for soyoil.

WHEAT

Wheat futures eased 2 to 3 cents overnight amid some topping action in row crops where prices had become technically overbought, and choppy action this week in an overall weaker dollar.  In addition, the trade is not enthused about U.S. export prospects as long as there is a decent supply of Black Sea wheat.  Trade estimates for U.S. wheat sales are 200,00 to 700,000 tons.  Dec Chicago wheat, at 5.85 continues to trade below $6.00 and is now at the contract’s 50-day moving average for the first time since testing the technical indicator in mid and late September; and Dec KC, at 5.43, is back below 5.50.  Dec Mpls is at 5.47 where the 50-day MA resides.

CATTLE

Cattle futures calls are steady, maybe higher if cash develops.  First bids were established at $110, with feedlots asking $112-114.  Very light trade at $109 to $110/cwt was seen in IA and NE, but not enough to set a trend.  More transactions will likely hold off until later today.  Future prices, meanwhile, stay in consolidation mode looking for direction.  Choice Carcasses have been on a strong rebound, up $12 since last week with seasonal demand.  They finished $3.43 higher on Thursday to $226.50 on modest movement.  Feeder cattle consolidated as well and finished with marginal gains.  Weakness in the corn market supports feeder prices, but will need direction from Live cattle fundamentals where outside markets and COVID concerns limit buying strength. 

HOGS

Lean hog calls are mixed as the market may be trying to etch out a bottom.  Prices have seen some follow through strength off of lows from Wednesday, and retail values are showing signs of turning higher.  Cash markets are mostly steady where the CME Lean Hog Index was firm, up .12 to 71.37, an indication that it may be starting to turn and hold a premium over December futures.  Retail values closed .06 lower to 83.08 from firmer at midday, but still $2.00 off the start of the week and trending higher.  Export sales numbers this morning could provide some direction.  The export market was stronger last week, and with carcass values softer, demand should improve.  Traders will be watching to see if Chinese demand will start moving out into 2021.

Author

Matthew Strelow