TFM Sunrise Update 11-19-19


Corn futures were up a penny overnight following two consecutive down days. March corn has closed lower 8 out of the past 11 sessions. The reality of a late harvested crop was reflected in the crop progress numbers last night which indicated 76% of the crop harvested, which obviously implies 24% yet to go and it is November 19th. 66% of the harvest was complete last week. Meanwhile, the market has also become technically oversold and maybe due for a bounce though domestic corn prices remain above South American prices and those markets have been exporting aggressively recently. This is one of the reasons cumulative corn shipments are running 7 million tons behind last year’s pace. This is 59% slower than last year.


Soybean futures rose 2 cents overnight while also mired in a weak trend. Weekly crop progress indicated 91% is harvested vs a 5-year average of 95%. Jan beans are now trading at he contract’s 100-day moving average at 9.12. The next downside target shows up around 9.01-1/2. US soybean exports are still ahead of last year but it will be crucial to see if exports can maintain their current pace as we move closer to South American harvest in early 2020, as well as, getting some positive news regarding Phase I deal with China.


Wheat futures were mostly flat with a bias for higher movement after good technical buying developed yesterday at key moving averages. Chicago December wheat contract bounced off of the 50 day moving average on the continuous and the psychological level of $5.00. A recent pullback in the dollar, which is up slightly this morning, offers some support from a competitive export perspective on the world market.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Futures prices stalled on yesterday, but arguably held together. An unclear cash market this week could leave futures vulnerable to a break. A narrowing of the choice select cutout may be suggesting the market is growing tired. For now, look for underlying support as it is unlikely cattle owners will accept lower prices this week ahead of a holiday-shortened week next week.


Hog futures are called steady to weaker. The strong premium of futures to cash leaves the market vulnerable to a further break. After posting a reversal last Wednesday, prices have closed lower three consecutive sessions on February futures losing nearly 6.00. Fears that talks with China can drag on coupled with record high slaughter last week with hog weights already near record levels favors the bears at this juncture in time.


Kelly Rubisch

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