TFM Sunrise Update 11-26-19


Corn futures eased 1-1/2 cents overnight to settle back into the mid-section of their recent trading ranges. Weekly crop progress has corn harvest at 84% complete, slightly below expectations. This is compared to a 5-average of 96%, and with key corn-producing states still in the upper 80’s, weather forecasts across the Midwest this week could likely slow progress even more. This could bring some additional follow-through strength in the corn market after Monday’s relatively good start to the week, but for now, prices are softer after last night’s session.


Bean futures were unchanged overnight and look to possibly trade lower today, in part on ideas that China is buying Brazilian soybeans in lieu of the trade barriers of the U.S./Chinese tariffs.  Favorable South American weather, and with USDA projecting bean harvest at 94% complete, the soybean market may be more based on its weakened technical picture in the short term. Prices are challenging some key support levels, and if prices break, could bring some additional long liquidation.


Wheat futures were down 4 to 6 cents overnight with the wind spilling from the sails of Monday’s rally.  Winter wheat conditions scores stayed unchanged week over week, and prices rallied in Monday’s session to challenge key levels of resistance. This could bring some consolidation as market participants decide whether to push prices higher, or pull back and take some profits.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer after nearby contracts reached higher prices not seen since April on Monday. Retail values stayed firm to start the week, as well as support being seen from a winter storm across cattle country that could limit buying interest. Weather will likely stymie movement, which could provide support the cash market.


Hog futures are called mixed. Hog futures are in consolidation and choppy trade. Heavy supplies of slaughter animals, as well as strong U.S. production, make it difficult for prices to rally. In addition, the market is struggling with the U.S./China trade issues. Demand will be the key going forward, and cutout values did firm in Monday’s trade, which could provide support.


Carol Tillmann

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