TFM Sunrise Update 11-27-19

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!

Thursday, November 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

Friday, November 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00.


Corn futures were narrowly mixed overnight with a two cent range posted in most contracts as the market stays extremely choppy given holiday trade and first notice day on the Dec contracts. Markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Thanksgiving Day and there will be no evening session Thursday night/ Friday morning. Overall demand news continues to be a concern, as well as the technical picture. The path of least resistance in corn looks to remain sideways to lower and unimpressed with a strong basis amid slow farmer selling.


Bean futures were up 2 cents overnight after succumbing to liquidation pressure on Tuesday sending prices to their lowest levels since the beginning of September. The weakened technical picture, as well as a softening Brazilian currency, will likely help maintain selling pressure into the bean market. Regardless, front-month bean futures are approximately 80 cents off of most recent highs and are approaching oversold levels and any favorable news could bring a quick bounce. Unfortunately, unlike other markets anticipating trade agreements between the U.S. and China, the soybean trade is not waiting around for any deals, but instead is factoring in an upward trending dollar that can harm exports, and the eventual completion of U.S. bean harvest.


Wheat futures were up 1 to 2 cents overnight and have held together rather well this week, so far despite weakness in neighboring row crops. Winter wheat saw a retreat from Monday’s gains but stayed relatively strong towards the end of the trading session on Tuesday, which could keep some money flow and short-covering into today’s session. While the technical picture may be improved and Paris wheat has firmed, global supplies and the dollar inching higher can keep limits on any short-term rallies.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer as high wind and snow moved from Colorado into Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa as well as other northern plains states. Asking prices are mostly at $120/cwt. A strong finish in Tuesday’s trading session hints at some likely follow through at the start of trade today. The anticipation of cash prices staying firm on a week over week basis as overall beef demand continues to remain strong can keep the market supported.


Hog futures are called mixed. Hog futures have been in consolidation mode for the last handful of trading sessions and looking for direction. Cash hog values did firm in Tuesday’s trade, which helped provide support but retail values have been extremely choppy and the hog market needs to see that demand in order to push prices higher off these levels.


Carol Tillmann

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