TFM Sunrise Update 12-10-19


Corn futures were unchanged overnight and should remain so until USDA releases their latest Supply and Demand report due out at 11:00 CST. Expect a slight increase to projected carryout from 1.910 bil to 1.950 bil. Crop Progress indicated 92% of the crop now harvested vs 100% on a 5-year average, but dry weather for the Dakotas should help those harvesters pick away at fields.


Soybean futures were quiet overnight but could see some follow through after another strong day yesterday in which futures gained 7 to 8 cents. However, Mar futures failed to close above the 21-day moving average after breaking through this level earlier in the session. Beans have been up 5 days in a row on technical short-covering and good demand including news that China has been buying. Today’s crop progress numbers may indicate a slight increase to projected carryout from 475 to 490 mil bu.


Wheat futures were off 2 to 3 cents overnight. A lack of positive news on expectation that while today’s report may show smaller world inventory, it will still be termed adequate. Traders have been anticipating an uptick in exports, but have been largely disappointed with short term performance.


Softer cutout values yesterday, along with a somewhat tired looking chart suggests sideways to lower for live cattle, as well as feeders. The market needs some revitalization and despite friendly economic, supply and demand fundamentals and, the repair of the Tyson Kansas plant, the market continues to show signs that a top is in place.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower. Dec futures is quickly aligning itself with the cash index. Yesterday, Dec futures lost 1.12 closing at 60.00 with the index at 58.49. We sound like a broken record, but big daily slaughters continue to weigh on the market. Yesterday’s figure was 496,000 which compares to 475,000 a year ago.


Kelly Rubisch

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