TFM Sunrise Update 12-11-19


Corn futures gave back Tuesday’s brief gains overnight, slumping 1-1/2 cents and to remain stuck in a sideways trend. Yesterday’s ratification of the USMCA accord is viewed as positive and could provide underlying support. A lack of farmer selling and decent basis will also be viewed as supportive. However, technically, prices need some sort of buying boost to muster any kind of momentum shift. March corn is trading at its support at 3.75-1/4 ahead of the next area of support seen at 3.73-3/4. First resistance lies at 3.781/2 and then 3.79-3/4. With a benign December USDA report in the rear view, Weekly Ethanol Stats later this morning and exports tomorrow morning are on tap for the trade.


Soybean futures were also lower overnight, giving up 2 cents to trade back in the middle of Tuesday’s 6 cent trading ranges. Continued dry weather concerns in Argentina and hopes that a deal with China is close offer support. There are reports of up to 2 million tons of Chinese waivers issued this week. Meanwhile, yesterday’s USDA report was viewed as neutral for beans and contracts are on track to trade and inside-day for the second consecutive session.


Wheat futures were down 2 to 3 cents overnight after finding some support yesterday on a slightly supportive projected carryout for U.S. wheat, as well as continued dry weather concerns in the western Plains and dry weather in Australia. March winter wheat contracts are tangled in a myriad of near-term moving averages that point to no particular direction for the market and, with the dollar consolidating and row crops stalled, two-sided, choppy trade can be expected for wheat today.


Cattle futures are called mixed. We continue to argue that the market looks somewhat tired but holds together well. Weaker cutout values by the tune of 5.00 to 6.00 over the last week should have bulls concerned, as well as drier weather promoting weight gains that could weigh on cash.


Hog futures are called steady to higher. Yesterday’s poor performance was a disappointment as news that China was lifting tariffs on pork failed to provide underlying support. Yesterday, the market rebounded on expectations for good demand but big daily slaughter numbers are still a problem as was evident again with 494,000 slaughtered as compared to 475,000 a year ago.


Kelly Rubisch

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