TFM Sunrise Update 12-20-19


Corn futures were up a penny overnight and are up about 4 cents for the week. Look for two-sided trade as the market moves into the weekend without much new news to digest since yesterday and a week-long rebound in the greenback exudes pressure. Trade deals and a stronger technical picture provide underlying support. Stronger basis levels are helping to encourage farmers to move inventory.


Soybean futures traded 2 cents higher overnight and are up 11 cents since Monday. News has been generally good this week with export sales, positive feedback from trade talks, and continued dry weather in Argentina. However, support from a Phase 1 trade deal may be fading into the end of the week and holiday-shortened trading schedule next week. Bean oil appears to have leveled off after helping propel the complex higher.


Winter wheat futures are higher this morning with gains of 3-1/4 cents in Chi contracts, 4 cents in KC; and, Mpls spring fractionally lower.  Prices have a strong undercurrent due to weather outside of the U.S. primarily the dominant factor and dryness in the western Plains states. A strong technical picture suggests wheat may have good support. Mar Chi futures are up 14 cents from Sunday night’s opening trade. Mar KC is holding gains of 15 cents on the week as well as staying above the contract’s 200-day moving average since Monday.


Cattle futures are called steady to lower after failing to take out recent highs amid the futures’ premium over cash and weather benefiting weight gains. Front month futures dropped 12 to 50 points yesterday and expectations for cash to end the week steady to 1.00 higher at a high of 120.00 Texas could provide underlying support. Yet, the futures continue to hold premium with Dec at 122.12. We will get a Cattle on Feed report after the close today.


Hog futures are called mixed. Look for two-sided trade after solid gains and the market holding shallow support yesterday. Fading enthusiasm over trade with China is likely to keep prices subdued.


Carol Tillmann

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