TFM Sunrise Update 12-4-19


Corn futures were mostly flat overnight, trading a mere 2-1/2 trading range. Look for continued consolidation, as the market lacks positive or negative news to drive prices in either direction. Weekly Ethanol Stats will be out mid-morning today, exports tomorrow morning.


Soybean futures rose 7 cents overnight. After tumbling 8 straight days, the market managed to finish with small gains yesterday despite a lack of positive news and signs from the President that a trade deal with China is nowhere near fruition, a sign that recent losses have accounted for the bearish rhetoric. That rhetoric seems to have changed overnight as people familiar with the talks have indicated that the US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back in a phase 1 deal despite tensions between Hong Kong and Xinjiang , according to newswires.


Wheat futures were up 3 to 4 cents overnight as volatility in the wheat classes mark the holiday trading period before the end of the year. A poor close yesterday as well as the previous day suggests prices were overbought and vulnerable to a break at anytime. Russia was awarded the latest Egyptian wheat tender and the US dollar continues to swing back and forth. For now, wheat is taking its cue from row crops, in particular beans that are higher this morning.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Prices continue to consolidate. We think they look tired, but buyers continue to buy dips. However, we’ll need to see new highs posted in order for speculative buying to pick up in earnest. The late Thanksgiving date narrows the time period between the holidays, thus shortening the buying window for packers to fulfill needs. Asking prices should stay in the $120/cwt range.


Hog futures are called steady to higher. A strong turnaround yesterday suggests futures may be trying to find a bottom. We were impressed with yesterday’s close, which was at or near the high of the day.


Lisa Heder

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