TFM Sunrise Update 12-9-19


Corn futures are expected to start the week mostly unchanged, as prices consolidate into the Supply and Demand report due out tomorrow at 11:00 ct. Expectations are that exports could be reduced slightly, and feed usage increased. Prices were flat overnight. We will get Weekly Export Inspections mid-morning today followed by a weekly update on how far along harvest progress is after the markets close this afternoon.


Soybean futures were up 2 to 3 cents overnight on follow through from last week’s solid gains. Net drying conditions in Argentina and a better sense of a deal with China at the end of last week is seen spilling over to last night’s modest gains. Sharp gains in bean oil on Friday and rising palm oil  is also noted. In tender activity, Egypt seeks 30,000 tons of optional-origin soyoil and 10,000tons of sunoil.


Winter wheat futures were down 1 to 2 cents overnight, spring wheat up 2. Last week’s trade was disappointing, especially in light of the U.S. dollar losing ground. For the week, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 17 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 16 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 2 for Hard Red Spring. The greenback has stabilized, so wheat futures should be more reflective of a slow export pace last week and a lack of new positive news. Ample world supplies are seen plaguing market performance going into tomorrow’s USDA reports. Stats Canada, last week upped that county’s production by 0.5% from last year. In tender activity – Ethiopia seeks 75,000 tons of optional-origin wheat; S. Korea seeks 60,000 tons of optional-origin feed wheat.


Cattle futures are called mixed, as futures lost ground last week but did finish firmer on Friday. Prices are still under the influence of a key topping reversal from November 29. Expectations for colder weather could provide underlying support, as will retailer buying. On the flip side, softer cuts at the end of last week could mean overhead pressure on futures this week.


Hog futures are called mixed as traders exhibit hesitation about buying into China’s deal to buy more pork. Either way, volatile price activity continues, as the market may be searching for a low. With futures holding a premium to cash with the index at 58.34 and Dec futures at 61.12, a convergence of cash to futures may occur.


Lisa Heder

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