TFM Sunrise Update 2-14-20

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, 2020 in observance of Presidents Day


Corn futures were flat overnight and are hanging just below moving-averages. Prices continue to trend in a sideways pattern awaiting news for direction. South American soybean harvest is off to a somewhat slow start which could mean some concern for second crop corn. Look for light volume trade as the trade takes a day off on Monday for President’s Day. Next Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will release new US 2020/21 corn supply and demand estimates.


Soybean futures were unchanged overnight, up about 7 cents for the week. Futures have closed higher nine consecutive sessions in the nearby March contract, but for a total of only 27 cents. That has us somewhat concerned that prices are edging higher but not finding real underlying strength. Export sales or potentially adverse weather in South America will be needed to drive prices higher.


Wheat futures firmed overnight, gaining 2 cents in the winter wheats, and only a fraction in spring wheat. Prices had a reversal turnaround on Wednesday which looked encouraging but yesterday’s lack of follow through and negative finish would suggest more confirmation that the longer-term up-trend has turned lower, particularly with another new multi-month high in the dollar occurring this morning.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer. Prices gained some ground yesterday finishing firmer for the second consecutive session as futures gained 50 to 70 points. Yet, overhead resistance at the 10-day moving average in Apr cattle at 119.20 will hold prices in check. Yesterday’s close was 118.52. This is where this week’s cash trade is coming in, mostly around $119/cwt.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher. Prices continue to chop in a sideways pattern on expectations that China will buy more pork in a more aggressive fashion after mid-February. Technical underlying support stems from futures posting a minor hook reversal upward on Feb and Apr contracts yesterday.


Carol Tillmann

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