TFM Sunrise Update 2-18-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 21, 2022 in observance of Presidents Day


Corn futures trade a weaker tone overnight with May down 2 to 6.47-1/4.  For the week, the actively traded contract is about even with last Friday’s 6.40-1/2 settlement while struggling at the 6.50 price level.  Dec corn is down 2 this morning to 5.94-1/2 and unchanged on the week while bumping up against contract high ceiling resistance on the daily chart at 5.98-3/4.  The rangebound action for this week is noteworthy considering the on-again, off-again interpretation of Russia’s threats to Ukraine.  Ukraine needs to export 600 mil bu of corn.  On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers 1,000 corn and are estimated to be net long 361,000 corn contracts.


The soy complex was mixed again overnight with May beans up a nickel to 16.01 and up 15 cents for this week on more talk of lower South American crops and higher demand for U.S. crush and
exports.  This week’s export sales figures featured China making up 44% of old crop soybean sales and 92% of new crop.  China soybean crushers may have limited coverage after March.  November futures gained 6-1/4 cents to 14.67 last night and are up 23 cents on the week.  May meal futures have had a volatile week while slumping 4.40 per ton from last Friday’s settlement to 449.50..  May soyoil futures were mixed overnight and up 1.08 per contract for the week to 66.74 with a new high etched at 67.07 yesterday before posting a bearish key reversal close.  On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 1,000 soybeans and 1,000 soymeal and sold 1000 soyoil on reduced volume.  They’re now estimated to be long 175,000 soybeans, 72,000 soymeal and 82,000 soyoil.  Overnight, Chinese May bean futures were down 39 yuan; Soymeal up 65; Soyoil up 102; Palm oil up 210; Corn up 6.  Malaysian palm oil prices were up 32 ringgit (+0.58%) at 5539.

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Wheat futures were mixed overnight.  May Chicago wheat was down 4 cents to 8.00-3/4.  For the week, the contract is down about 3 cents.  On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 Chicago wheat and are now estimated short 28,000.  May KC wheat is down 2 this morning to  8.25-3/4, mostly unchanged for the week.  May MPLS is fractionally higher at 9.58 and close to last Friday’s settlement price of 9.57-1/2 within a tightening range.  Like corn, the rangebound action for this week is noteworthy considering the on-again, off-again interpretation of Russia’s threats to Ukraine.  To date, Russian wheat exports are estimated to be 23 mil metric tons with a quota of 30-33 mmt versus USDA’s 35 mmt.


Cattle futures are called mixed after a round of selling pressure on Thursday that turns prices range bound, looking for direction.  Front month Live cattle futures were supported by higher cash markets this week.  Cash trade has been slow to develop this week, but early trade is pulling $142, up slightly with last week and keeping the trend higher.  The April contract has showed signs of losing upward momentum though, as prices have fallen into a $3.00 trading range the past 13 days.  A potential head and shoulders pattern is forming on the chart, which if a downside break were to occur could have the market testing 142.500 and trend line support.   Retail values are still showing good historical values, but traded softer at the close, (Choice: -.03 to 269.59, Select: -1.23 to 264.85) with demand light to moderate at 161 loads.  The Feeder cash index traded .12 lower to 162.56.  Cattle markets overall are still in an uptrend, but momentum has slowed.  Prices may be reach winter highs, and a potential pull back may be in front of the market.


Hog futures are called higher.  Technically, it looks like traders bought the recent dip as they anticipate tightening supplies through the year.  A strong move in retail values and a firming cash market provided the strength as the strong demand tone stays in the market keeping buyers active with April looking to challenge 110.00 and summer months looking to push to the $120 level.  Pork cutout values surged higher at midday gaining 11.04 and closed holding those gains up 10.02 to 116.54.  The load count was moderate at 316 loads.  The Cash Lean Hog index gained 1.50 to 93.34.  A winter storm is set to move across a large part of the United States and may impede the movement of hogs, further supporting cash market prices.


Matthew Strelow

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