CORN
Corn futures traded positive overnight. The May contract was up 8-1/2 cents to 7.41-1/2. December corn was up 6 to 6.42-3/4. Many question USDA’s March row crop and wheat data, and suggest the agency may wait until May when they estimate World 2022/23 supply and demand to make needed changes to World trade matrix due to the war in Ukraine, fearing bullish numbers would fuel food inflation fears. The U.S. Trade Secretary warned China of potential reprisals if China violates Russian sanctions. Rumors of UAE increasing oil production appear unfounded. This may have caused the record drop in Crude oil futures on Wednesday. Overnight, crude recovered some of the losses, the dollar was higher and stock index futures were down. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 500,000 to 1.20 mil tons for old crop, 50,000 to 700,000 tons for new crop.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures were up overnight with May back to retesting the recent daily highs, up 19 cents to 16.90-3/4 after reversing yesterday’s break out to the upside. November beans were up 9-1/4 cents to 14.83. May meal is at 480.30, up 5.60. May soyoil is at 75.31, up 1.16. For the third straight month USDA lowered the South America soybean crop, but increased U.S. exports only 40 mil bu and decreased carryout only 55 mil bu. The agency increased U.S. soyoil exports 200 mil lbs, but lowered biofuel 200 mil lbs. They (USDA) failed to address the fact Ukraine may not ship sunoil this year. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Bean Weekly Export Sales are 900,000 to 1.70 mil tons for old crop, 900,000 to 1.50 mil tons for new crop. Meal sales are estimated to be 75,000 to 350,000 tons for old, zero to 50,000 for new. Soyoil sales are estimated at 2,000 to 30,000 for old, zero to 10,000 for new.
Like what you’re reading?
Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!
WHEAT
Wheat futures were mixed overnight while trying to stabilize following extreme volatility since February 22. May Chicago wheat is down 7 cents to 11.96, near the upper end of last night’s trading range with expanded limits of $1.30 per bushel in place for today. The contract’s overnight trading range spanned 11.98-1/2 to 11.09. On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 16,000 Chicago wheat putting their net long back to 15,000 contracts. May KC wheat is up 15-1/2 cents to last night’s high 11.30 versus last night’s low at 10.58. May MPLS wheat is up 23 cents to last night’s high of 11.07 (low 10.50). Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 400,000 tons for old crop, 50,000 to 200,000 tons for new crop.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called mixed. The market is trying to form a bottom, and the up-turn in prices has improved the technical picture. The movement in grains and outside markets will impact the cattle markets. Cattle, like most commodity markets saw selling pressure as Crude oil futures dropped aggressively, triggering some long liquidation in most commodities. A softer cash tone and retail close on Tuesday limited upside potential. April cattle failed to break resistance at the 10-day and 200-day moving average, as prices consolidate near the top of the range for the week. Prices may be looking to build a flag pattern, but will need to hold in this trading range. April prices will need to push through the 140 level to add more buying strength. The cash market was still building on Wednesday with more completed trade at $138, down $2.00 from last week and steady with yesterday. This is disappointing and could be a limiting factor for live cattle prices for the April contract. The retail close on Wednesday had boxed beef prices mixed, (choice: +.26 to 252.70, select: -.15 to 244.79) with demand light at 168 loads. The Feeder Cattle Cash Index was .22 lower to 153.89, and a small discount to the March feeder contract.
HOGS
Hogs are called steady to higher after holding on to most of the gains from earlier this week. Prices are looking for direction overall, waiting for a clearer direction from cash and retail values. The fundamentals will be key to support this market as it has a lot of work to do to push through to the upside. The April hogs failed to push through resistance at the 10-day moving average, but traded close to the range from Tuesday. There is a price gap on the chart at 104.250, which could be an upside target. Pork cutout values had a disappointing close on Tuesday afternoon, but were higher on the close Wednesday gaining 2.34 to 107.7 with a moderate 239 load count. Cash has been supportive with the National Direct morning trade posting strong gains. Midday direct trade was 8.06 higher to 101.98 from Tuesday. The Cash Lean Hog Index was 0.28 lower to 99.00. The April futures are trading at a 2.150 premium to the index, which could limit near-term upside.
Author
Matthew Strelow