TFM Sunrise Update 3-3-21


Corn futures eased 3 to 6 cents overnight led by the nearbys.  May was down 6 to 5.39 while staying just below 10 and 20 day moving average resistance drawn at 5.47.   Dec corn fell 2-1/4 cents to 4.73-1/2.  Row crops remain in limbo awaiting USDA revisions.  The next report is on March 9.  Some feel USDA may make few changes to U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout.  They may wait until after the March 31 stocks and acreage report.  Most private guesses for U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout is near 1.100 bil bu vs USDA 1.502.  The key will be how demand draws down supplies.  Argentina raised their crop rating to 30% good-to-excellent, but still below last year’s 67%.   Production estimates are as low as 45.5 mmt versus Informa’s estimate near 47.  Informa also estimated Brazil’s corn crop near 108.6 versus what many believe to be closer to 105 mmt.  Weekly Ethanol Stats will be out today with ethanol production expected anywhere between 688,000 to 890,000 barrels per day versus last week’s 658,000 number.  Inventory is expected to be near 22.3 to 22.7 mil barrels versus 22.8 mil last week.


Beans were choppy overnight with a weaker bias after finding support at 10 and 20-day Moving Averages and closing higher yesterday.  May beans are down 2 cents to 14.10-1/2.  Nov is down 4 to 12.25-3/4.  Meal and soyoil contracts were also mixed overnight.  Talk of lower Argentine crop estimates and potential pricing in futures by China of open and unshipped Brazil sales underpins the market.  China has secured 35 to 37 mmt Brazilian soybeans and 19 mmt of U.S. soybeans.  Most of the U.S. product has been shipped.  Record U.S. Jan soybean crush and higher basis could also be supporting soybean futures, but at the same time offering resistance to soymeal and soyoil values.  Yesterday, Informa estimated Brazil’s soybean crop near 136 mmt.  China soybean futures hit a new high near $25.75 linked to delays in Brazil’s exports to China.  China’s Dalian soybean futures gained more than 3% to a record high overnight.


Winter wheat futures were mostly lower overnight.  May Chicago wheat was down 6 cents to 6.60-1/4 after trading an outside day on Tuesday.  May KC lost 4 cents to 6.31-1/4.  In Mpls, May Spring wheat futures were off 2 cents to 6.43-1/4.  Talk of better rains across parts of the U.S. HRW growing areas later this week is helping keep prices choppy.  Matif wheat futures made new 8 year highs on lower EU supplies to start the week, and lower U.S. weekly HRW crop ratings and a setback in the dollar offer support.  Meanwhile, Informa raised India’s wheat crop 300 mt to 107.9 and Ukraine’s wheat crop 3.5 mmt to 25.5.   Looking ahead to next week’s USDA report, most do not look for many changes to U.S. 2020/21 supply and demand tables, nor World numbers.  Overnight tender activity showed Philippines seeking 145,000 tons of optional-origin wheat and Japan bought 82,937 tons of U.S./Canadian wheat.


Cattle calls are for steady to higher.   Bullish traders fought off selling pressure and turned higher on Tuesday, with most charts putting reversals in on the day.  This could open the door for additional short covering and value buying, as prices hold support levels.  Cash markets are still undeveloped with scattered bids and asking prices $1-2 higher than last week.  Today’s Fed Cattle Exchange will give us a glimpse of cash, but most trade will hold of until the end of the week.  Retail carcasses finished sharply lower with Choice carcasses down 4.35 to 234.68, and Select 1.47 to 226.17, but movement was good at 112 loads.  The weakness in retail values could be signaling a seasonal top in carcass values.


Lean hog calls are for steady to lower after a technical break yesterday.  The trade will be monitoring an outbreak of African swine fever that was confirmed in piglets being illegally transported through Funing county in China’s southwestern province of Yunnan, according to the farm ministry.  The case comes amid growing concern that a severe wave of disease in recent months has hit China’s hog herd.  Position-wise, the market is set-up for additional long liquidation amid bear spreading, taking the premium out of the front months versus the deferred.  Despite weak price action, fundamentals were supportive, and could limit the overall downside.  Cash markets and the Index were strong, with the index gaining 1.20 to 81.90, and the strong cash market supporting the April contract.  Retail values were strong at midday, up 7.00, and held some of those gains into the close.  Pork carcasses closed 2.50 higher to 94.87, on 387 loads, fueled by moves in the ham and belly primal cuts, as well as some potential export buying.  Technically, the market was over-bought and due for a correction, and with the strong fundamentals, may be poised to find some support buying on lower moves.  .


Matthew Strelow

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates