TFM Sunrise Update 3-4-20


Corn futures were flat/weaker overnight. After rising back to recent trading ranges this week, prices are now following their lower trending, near-term moving averages and will have a difficult time stringing together positive days. Mar corn managed three consecutive higher sessions and May two. Today could return to a risk-off session. Volatility in equities and continued concern of coronavirus look to impact prices as well. Stock index futures are up 550 points after tumbling yesterday. Crude is on the rebound, and we’ll get Weekly Ethanol Stats later this morning, Weekly Exports tomorrow.


Soybean futures were up 3 cents overnight on the heels of a surprise early interest rate cut by the Fed mid-week. Prices remain choppy but mostly range-bound. Expected record harvest in Brazil will keep a lid on prices. So, all in all, look for traders to stay on the sidelines with prices technically neutral until weather becomes a factor, or meal prices influence the trade. Soybean meal, currently steady this morning, is viewed as technically overbought which could support a reversal if prices stall.


Wheat futures were down 3 to 5 cents overnight, adding to an ‘iffy’ looking technical picture. The bias tends to lean toward more price pressure unless the Fed rate cut is viewed as long-term supportive news in terms of keeping demand strong for U.S. Wheat. The dollar, which is seen as barometer for wheat export potential, is up this morning after falling five consecutive days.


Cattle futures are called flat to lower. Prices had a soft landing yesterday with April cattle closing 265 points of the session high.  Futures are oversold, technically, but we look for the market to remain turbulent with coronavirus concerns dampening beef demand and weaker energies seen as reason for prices to move lower.


Hog futures are called mixed. Prices rebounded yesterday, but there is a lack of friendly news, and daily slaughter continues to run high, as yearly production is running more than 5% over last year. Meanwhile, high volatility in the stock market is wreaking havoc in a number of markets and will likely trigger non-fundamental related moves in hogs moving forward, adding to an unpredictable market place.


Lisa Heder

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