CORN

Corn futures were mostly unchanged overnight.  May corn traded a 3-3/4 cent range between 5.52-1/4 and 5.56 along it’s 10-day moving average.  The short-term trend remains stronger following last week’s bullish acreage data, but prices may soften if follow-through buying interest fails to keep prices moving upward.  Dec corn stayed rangebound between 4.87 and 4.90.  Weekly Export Inspections were above trade estimates.  There is talk that South America is offering corn for export below U.S. prices.  USDA’s next monthly Supply Demand report is Friday.  The Agency’s World Agriculture Outlook Board is scheduled to release its April production forecasts for grains, oilseeds, too.  U.S. Corn planted was 2% (trade estimate was 3%) versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 2% average, according to the Weekly Crop Progress data posted by USDA late yesterday afternoon.  In outside markets, crude and the dollar are up after weaker sessions yesterday.

SOYBEANS

The soy complex was higher overnight with nearby May up 5 to 14.18-3/4 within an 8-1/2 cent trading range from 14.12-1/4 and 14.21.  Nov was up 4 to 12.73, underpinned by a low acreage estimate.  Look for another rather active, but rangebound session as the market digests the latest USDA numbers and weather.  Good April weather could lead to additional planted acres for beans.  Informa estimates U.S. 2021 soybean acres near 89.8 million versus USDA’s guess of 87.6.  In South America, Brazil weather is still mostly dry.  Informa estimates Brazil’s 2021 soybean crop near 137.5 mmt vs USDA 134.0.  They estimate Argentina’s 2021 soybean crop at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 47.5, and Brazil’s 2022 soybean crop at 140.0 mmt and Argentina 55.7.

Bean oil, which has helped support the bean rally, is strengthening again after the recent pullback.  Malaysian palm oil prices were up 51 ringgit at 3,790 (basis June) at midsession tracking rival vegoils, improving exports.  Palm-oil sales will likely remain elevated in the second quarter on strong demand from top importers China and India, which are facing low stocks after the pandemic cut into production, according to a co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics.  “Both countries are likely to continue buying even though prices are atypically high for the season.”

WHEAT

Wheat futures were unchanged overnight after closing mixed to begin the week.  May contracts remain mired in a distinct downward trending pattern.  The USDA said on Monday stated that 53% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good-to-excellent.  These ratings mark the government’s first assessment of conditions since the crop emerged from its winter dormancy, and were in line with market expectations.  Last year, the G/E rating was 62%.  31% was fair vs 29% a year ago; 16% poor-to-very poor vs 9% a year ago.  U.S. Winter Wheat headed was 4% versus NA% last week, 3% a year ago and 3% average.  U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 3% (trade estimate was 2%) versus NA% last week, 3% a year ago, 2% average.

Informa yesterday estimated the U.S. 2021 all wheat crop near 1.946 bil bu vs 1.826 last year.  They estimated the U.S. 2021 winter wheat crop near 1.316 bil bu versus 1.171 last year.   The HRW crop is estimated near 739 mil bu vs 659 last year.  The SRW crop is estimated near 340 mil bu vs 266 last year.  Informa also estimated  the World 2021 wheat crop near 788 mmt vs 777 last year; Russia 69 vs 63 last year.

CATTLE

Author

Matthew Strelow