TFM Sunrise Update 5-17-21


Corn futures traded mostly softer overnight.  July is up 3 to 6.46-3/4, the rest of the board is down 3 to 4 cents.  Spot basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast remained mostly steady on Friday, as grain traders and shippers cheered the reopening of a portion of the lower Mississippi River that was shut since Tuesday.  Dec corn is down 2 to 3 cents to 5.40, up off the overnight and April 21st low of 5.27. Weekly Export Inspections will be out this morning followed by Weekly Crop Ratings.  Last week, exporters sold 1.36 million tons of U.S. corn to China for 2021/22 delivery, according to the USDA.  Three South Korean importers bought an estimated 263,000 tons of corn on Friday in separate deals.  Midwest weather forecasts hold scattered showers through Tuesday in the western portion. Temperatures are to be near to below normal Friday through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  For the Eastern section -mostly dry through Friday.  The 6-to-10-day outlook has scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday with temperatures near to above normal Wednesday.


Soybeans were mixed overnight with July up 8 to 15.94-1/4 and Nov up a penny to 14.01-3/4.  Prices are consolidating to begin the week as generally good spring-time weather acts as a resistance barrier for price.  In addition, technical resistance comes in after bearish reversals were posted on the charts last week.  New highs in bean oil is helping provide lift to the complex.  U.S. April soybean crush data will be out today with crush expected to be 170.5 mil bu.  The crush is seen 0.8% lower vs April of last year, and a decline of 4.2% vs a month ago.  Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.785b lbs vs 2.111b a year earlier.  Overnight, Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans were up 39 yuan ; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil up 30; Palm oil up 50; and, Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 52 ringgit (-1.15%) at 4454 amid prospects for weakening demand from India, the top buyer, where large parts of the nation remained under local lockdowns to fight the world’s worst outbreak of Covid-19.  Global weather updates show Brazil mostly dry through Thursday with temperatures near-to-above normal through Friday.  Argentina looks mostly dry through Tuesday with scattered showers Wednesday through Friday and temperatures near-to-below normal Monday through Tuesday, and near-to-above normal Wednesday-Friday.  Malaysia is to see thunderstorms and heavy rain over most parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan today, according to the country’s Meteorological, Climatological & Geophysical Agency.


Wheat futures are lower this morning led by 20 cent losses in Spring Wheat contracts.  July MPLS dropped as much as 27 cents to 4.22, the lowest level since April 22.  July CBOT and KC wheat contracts are down a nickel to 7.02-1/4 and 6.52-3/4, respectively, as improving weather equates to improved crop prospects.  Short-term weather looks favorable for improving crop conditions with plenty of rain for Kansas and Oklahoma.  Some relief may also be in the cards for North Dakota in the two-week forecast.  Stability in the corn market may lead to some price pressure for the wheats, too.   In Russia, wheat shipments increased.  For the current season, exports totaled 36.4m tons as of May 13, the Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.


Cattle futures calls are for steady to lower.  Cash stayed disappointing last week with light to moderate trade in the north at mostly $120 to $121 live, and $191 dressed – $2 to $3 higher than the previous week.  Light to moderate volumes traded in the South from mainly $119 to $120 – steady to $1 firmer.  Retail trade finished mixed on Friday, but overall trade was strong.  Buyer interest slowed late in the week, but Choice boxes still advanced $10.41 and Select increased $6.55.  Feeder cattle still finished soft.  Early price action this week may be a key, but technically, charts look concerning as the market is looking for fresh news to boost prices.  We’ll get a Cattle on Feed report at the end of the week.


Hog calls are steady to lower after finishing lower again on Friday.  The larger uptrend remains intact, but a slide through the 10-day moving average early in the week and a test of the 21-day moving average on Friday has traders cautious.  Pork carcass values trended higher all week, softening slightly on Friday’s close.  Carcasses dropped off midday strength to finish .49 lower to 115.71 on 340 loads.  Cash markets remain supportive overall, but the lean hog index was trading .01 lower to 110.94.  Prices may be losing some momentum to the upside.



Matthew Strelow

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