Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.
CORN
Corn futures were unchanged overnight ahead of Weekly Export Sales data. Trade estimates are (100,000) to 300,000 tons for old crop, 100,000 to 400,000 tons for new crop. Last week there were rumors China may have bought U.S. PNW corn for Jan-Feb. Talk of a Ukraine export agreement offers resistance to corn and wheat, but new highs were again posted in the dollar overnight, and crude is making fresh multi-week lows putting pressure on prices. Spot basis bids for row crops shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell on Wednesday as weak demand deflated basis, though tight interior supplies lent support, traders said. The U.S. west Midwest and EU 2-week weather forecast is mostly warm and dry. 65 to 70% of the Midwest has adequate topsoil moisture. For the week so far corn is down 21-3/4 cents.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded two-sided again last night with a weak tone. Aug beans are down 3-1/2 cents this morning to 14.81-1/4. Nov is down 7-3/4 cents to 13.41-3/4. August meal is up 1.0 to 438.10; Soy oil is off 86 cents to 58.14 in the August contract. Trade estimates for Weekly bean Export Sales are (200,000) to 200,000 tons for old crop, 100,000 to 300,000 tons for new crop. China June edible
imports were down 21% vs May and 75% last year due to lower restaurant demand. Chinese soybean imports are down 8%. Malaysian palm oil is higher on talk Indonesia will stop sending workers to Malaysia due to breach of contract. Malaysian palm oil futures had been lower on Asian demand concerns. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palm oil prices were higher overnight.
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WHEAT
Winter wheat futures were unchanged overnight. Trade estimates for Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 500,000 tons. Sept MPLS spring wheat futures were up a dime overnight to 9.24-1/4. Officials said that the talks concluded with an agreement on broad parameters of how grain can again be exported through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, but cautioned that any deal still needs to be signed off by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officials believe this could happen when the Russian leader meets Turkish President Erdogan next week in Tehran. Under the broad agreement reached Wednesday, grain could ship from three Ukrainian ports in convoys escorted by Ukrainian vessels, with a cease-fire to protect vessels within geographical limits and some minesweeping.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called steady to higher after light gains in live cattle futures on Wednesday, and triple digit gains in feeder cattle. The cattle market has looked under-value compared to countryside trade, and with strong money flow into the cattle market, seeing some buying support. The cash market got a start on Wednesday, seeing mostly steady trade, which helped support the live cattle market. A light trade is being reported in most areas this afternoon with Southern live trade at $137, northern dressed business is at $230, about $2 lower than last week. Northern bids continue to run strong than southern bids and northern cattle stay very current and supplies tight. Talk that packers are buying southern cattle and hauling them north to help fill cash cattle demand. The cattle market is seeing good money flow, especially in feeders, so price action looks strong, and may have more room to move higher in the near-term.
HOGS
Hogs are called mixed while staying in a range bound fashion. However, if demand continues to pick up, the market is poised for a breakout higher. The cash market will still be the key in the days ahead as prices contend with lighter volume trading. Cash markets are choppy. After a strong day on Tuesday, Direct morning trade was softer on Wednesday, losing 6.19 to 115.58 and a 5-day rolling average of 119.35. The CME lean hog index was .80 higher to 112.57. July expires on Friday, and is still holding a premium to the index, which could be a limiting factor. Cash markets are choppy. After a strong day on Tuesday, Direct morning trade was softer on Wednesday, losing 6.19 to 115.58 and a 5-day rolling average of 119.35. Futures have attained their highest levels in nearly 6-weeks. Strong surge in Chinese hog prices and cash strength helps support the market overall. August hogs tried to push back through resistance at the 100-day moving average, but the resistance levels held. Overall, the market is still trading range bound between the 100 and 200-day moving averages. It may be difficult to push out of that range given the current overall market conditions.
Author
Matthew Strelow