CORN
Corn futures were higher overnight while staying inside Monday’s trading ranges. Nearby Sept corn gained 12-1/2 cents to 5.68-1/2. Dec was up 12-1/4 cents to 5.64-1/2. Outside markets, which helped pressure commodity markets yesterday, are bouncing this morning. Weekly Crop Ratings stayed unchanged from last week’s 65% Good-to-Excellent. The trade was expecting 66%. On Monday, frosts hit parts of the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, with late planted corn areas likely affected. The week began with the already-shattered corn market in Brazil enduring another blow as a new cold wave swept the center-south of Brazil bringing frosts to corn-producing states and raising fresh concerns about export volumes and contract breaches, according to a newswire story. The cold wave is expected to reach its peak today, with forecasts showing potential fresh frosts in the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Minas Gerais.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans, meal and oil were all up overnight. Aug beans are finding a home near the 14.50 area and the contract’s 50-day Moving Average. The contract is up 18 cents this morning. Nov is up 18 to 13.90-3/4 within last night’s trading range between 13.97-1/2 and 13.77-3/4. Weekly Crop Ratings improved 1 point to 11% in the Excellent category, helping raise this week’s Good-to-Excellent ratings to 60%. Chinese Sept bean futures were down 218 yuan; Soymeal down 36; Soyoil down 120; Palm oil down 106. Malaysia palmoil markets, which have been supportive, are closed for holiday. Stock index futures and crude oil contracts are up this morning after bouncing off of 100-day Moving Average support levels following yesterday’s price collapse.
WHEAT
Wheat futures posted double-digit gains overnight as commodity markets try to regain positive momentum from Sunday night’s rally. Sept CBOT and KC contracts made new highs for the move on gains of 20-1/4 cents to 7.18 and 19-1/2 cents to 6.71-3/4, respectively. Sept MPLS spring wheat stalled below Monday’s contract high of 9.44-1/2 while advancing 19-1/4 cents to 9.43. Weekly Crop Ratings for the spring wheat crop showed 92% of the crop ‘headed’ with the Good-to-Excellent category slipping 5 points to 11% versus the trade estimate of 15%. Last year, the combined categories were 68%. Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 73% complete.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called mixed. Live cattle fought of early session lows to finish the day mixed on Monday. Early in the session, live cattle futures pushed triple-digit losses as the markets in general saw a risk-off mentality led by big drops in the crude oil and equities. August cattle pulled back to the level of anticipated cash, and October stayed under pressure given the premium in that market to the current cash market. The cash market was very quiet, as typical for a Monday. Expectations are for trade to remain steady, with the majority of business holding off until later in the week. Carcass values have dropped in value recently, and midday kept the path in play. Choice carcasses dropped an additional 1.45 on the close to 266.49 and Select was 2.30 lower to 249.49. Load count was light at 125 loads. Technically, charts looked weak and concerning, but the price action later in the day was supportive, and could bring some follow through higher today. Demand and carcass values will remain key factors.
HOGS
Hogs are called steady to higher. Price action was disappointing to begin the week, especially after the improvement last week. Prices are trying to work higher, but yesterday’s lower close will challenge the market technically today. Closing carcass values will be a key. Concerns regarding the Delta-variant of Covid, and the strong retreat in energy markets may continue to influence the hog trade. The cash market and lean hog index was firmer, gaining .55 to 111.89. Weekly pork production was estimated at 479 million pounds, up from the 4th of July week last week, but down 10% from last year, this should support the cash market. Pork carcasses were firming last week, and at midday, pork values were sharply higher gaining 4.04. At the close, pork carcasses held some gains finishing 1.91 higher to 121.85 with good movement of 249 loads.
Author
Matthew Strelow