TFM Sunrise Update 7-21-20


Corn futures were down 2 to 3 cents overnight as rain makes its way across portions of the corn belt.  Weekly Crop ratings were unchanged for the week at 69% Good/Excellent.  The market was expecting a small decline.  The crop was 59% silking, up from 29% a week ago and the five-year average of 54%, according to the USDA.  Seasonally, corn prices work lower into the end of July, and with the crop in overall good conditions, the supply side of the equation is keeping pressure on prices.


Soybean futures are lower this morning with most contracts seeing 5 to 6 cent declines.  Weekly USDA crop ratings improved by 1% to 69% Good/Excellent, vs expectations of a small decline.   The strong demand tone stays supportive for the market with announced export sales to China and unknown destinations over each of the last six days.  We’ll need to see this continue if November futures has any chance of pushing through resistance at the $9.00 level.  Meal and oil were also softer overnight.


Wheat futures are called mixed for today after trading mostly steady amid a new low in the dollar overnight.  Despite strong European and Black Sea wheat prices, the global supply picture stays heavy making rallies difficult.  Egypt is tendering for supplies today which may provide a glimpse of the trend in global wheat prices.  Chicago wheat futures broke back through support levels on Monday and saw aggressive long liquidation.  The USDA said the U.S. wheat harvest was 74% complete, up from 68% a week earlier.  Analysts expected the harvest to be 79% complete, with estimates ranging from 75% to 85%.  For spring wheat, the crop was rated 68% good to excellent, unchanged from last week and in line with analysts’ expectations.


Live cattle futures are called mixed. Cattle markets saw profit taking pressure to start the week, but stronger retail values helped rally prices off of their lows.  Cash was undeveloped on Monday, but expectations are for cash to remain steady to firmer this week.  Large slaughter supplies will keep rallies limited, so look for choppy price action this week ahead of the Cattle-On-Feed report at the end of the week.


Lean hog are futures are called steady lower after a big down day on Monday led by weaker retail values.  Carcasses were down $2.75 to $68.44, so profit-taking and long liquidation should continue this morning as the recent rally off of contract lows comes to an end for the nearby contracts.


Matthew Strelow

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