TFM Sunrise Update 9-13-2019


Corn futures were up 1 to 2 cents overnight after yesterday’s very friendly looking bullish key reversal and positive reaction to a negative report that  suggests selling interest has about come to an end. Follow through is the key! Farmer selling remains light and basis levels strong amid concern for crop maturity. However, there are no real cold temperatures in the forecast that would represent a significant frost scare. Dec corn is back up to within a test of the 3.70 price area, and above the contract’s 20-day moving average for the first time in more than a month.


Bean futures traded 2 to 3 cents higher overnight putting Nov at the contract’s highest price point since the end of July. Yesterday’s big push higher was on the heels of very positive export activity in a somewhat supportive USDA report. World carryout dropped more than 2 mmt. Support also stems from positive trade rhetoric from China. China’s State Council will exclude some agricultural products, including soybeans and pork, from additional tariffs on U.S. goods, China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported overnight Friday, citing official sources.


Wheat futures were up a nickel overnight. As the market grapples with ample world inventories cited in yesterday’s USDA report, a lack of farmer selling and wet conditions for the remainder of spring wheat harvest are viewed as supportive.


Cattle futures are called mixed to higher on follow through after a very significant turnaround in prices this week in which futures will probably post weekly bullish key reversals. Short covering was noted the last two session as expectation for better demand surface and thoughts the market was oversold.


Hog futures are called firmer on follow through after lock limit prices yesterday on news that China made a sizable purchase of U.S. pork products. Plus overnight, China indicated that they will exclude pork from additional tariffs. Expanded limits are in play today after yesterday’s rally.


Matthew Strelow

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