TFM Sunrise Update 9-17-19


Corn futures retreated overnight despite a solid close yesterday and the weekly bullish key reversal established on charts on Friday. Dec corn was down 4-1/4 cents to 3.69-3/4 while trading inside Monday’s trading range. Crop conditions indicated 55% of the crop rated good to excellent, the same as last week and 14% poor to very poor, also the same as last week. Corn harvested is 4% complete vs a 5-year average of 7%. Lastly, corn mature is 18% vs a 5-year average of 39%, once again exemplifying how late this year’s crop is.


Bean futures were down overnight. Nov beans fell back below $9.00 to 8.93-3/4 on a loss of 6-1/4 cents after becoming technically overbought on the recent rally to 9.04-3/4. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated 15% of the overall crop dropping leaves vs a 5-year average of 38%. 18% of the crop was estimated to be mature compared to 39% on average.Crop conditions were 54% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. The poor to very poor category gained 1% and is now at 14%.


Wheat futures were down 5 to 6 cents in Chi contracts, 3 to 4 in KC.  The KC contract is still 80 cents discount to Chi which should begin to correct. Good technical strength, growing dry weather concerns in Australia, and lack of significant harvest for spring wheat due to wet weather is noted moving as we hit mid-September. Spring wheat harvest is now 76% complete vs a 5-year average of 93%, and only a 5% pick up from the previous week.


Cattle futures are called steady. Prices sagged into the close yesterday, but were relatively unchanged. Slaughter was adequate yesterday at 117,000 vs 115,000 last week and 113,000 a year ago. A 22.00 spread on choice select would suggest feedlots are current.


Hog futures are called mixed. Prices have been very volatile over the last few months and the last few sessions were no exception with limit higher closes at the end of last week followed by a 285 point close lower in Oct but 197 point close higher in Dec. Look for mixed to firmer markets today.


Kelly Rubisch

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