TFM Sunrise Update 9-19-19


Corn futures were unchanged overnight as the trade awaits this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales numbers. Trade estimates range between 900,000 and 1.30 mil tons for new crop. There was a rash of good buying late in the session yesterday, but weather forecasts still look conducive for late crop maturity. In addition, strong calendar spreads will likely keep farmer selling at bay.


Bean futures were down 2 cents after softening yesterday in contrast to stronger corn and wheat prices, but overall are holding together well after a 50 cent rally. Weather looks conducive for crop maturity through September and news that South Korea has identified a second case of African Swine Fever that will dent meal prices looks to weigh on the complex at week’s end. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export sales 700,000 to 1.10 mil tons.


Wheat futures are called mixed. Prices had a good jump yesterday, but are up against resistance zones on charts. Dec Chi closed slightly above the 50-day moving average while the market closed below. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export sales 300,000 to 600,000 tons.


Cattle futures are called mixed to higher. A stronger technical picture is developing and as we’ve indicated in past reports the spread between choice and select would suggest feedlots are relatively current. President Trump has announced a conclusion to a trade agreement with Japan putting us at least on the same footing as others in the Trans Pacific Trade agreement. In much the same way cattle flows changed following the Tyson fire, global beef and pork flows are also changing and realigning.


Hog futures are called mixed. Look for volatility to continue to be a primary feature as prices move back and forth in what should be the bottoming range for the year.


Kelly Rubisch

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