TFM Sunrise Update 9-23-19


Corn futures were firm overnight. Dec corn is up 2 cents to 3.72 and 20 cents above the contract low after waning at the end of last week. The Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed money increased short positions for the ninth week in a row to 170,000 through a week ago Tuesday. No threat in the forecast of frost has been the biggest impact for price direction. Prices have edged higher recently, but not significantly as there just doesn’t appear to be a weather premium due to lack of hard killing frost expectations anytime soon. The 6 to 10 day outlook holds above normal temperatures with rainfall near to below normal. Weekly Export Inspections and Crop ratings are on tap for today’s routine market data.


Bean futures gained Friday’s losses overnight with Nov up a dime to 8.93 while trading inside Friday’s lower trading range. Prices softened at the end of last week, yet export sales were excellent and end user buying seems to be more prevalent. Yield results are too preliminary to give much feedback at this time. .Weather is viewed as favorable for filling and maturing crops in the Midwest. However crop development remains well behind normal in many areas. There is no damaging cold weather indicated for at least the next 10 days. Elsewhere, hot and dry in central Brazil has limited planting of any early soybean crop. However, signs point to somewhat cooler temperatures and increased shower activity this week which may encourage increased planting activities.


Wheat futures are called mixed for today. Chi wheat was flat/weak overnight, KC up a penny or two. Prices have tried to climb the last few weeks, but may have run out of support on Friday when a lack of new news weighed hard on soft red winter. Spring wheat continues to find light support from harvest delays. Mpls was  up a nickel overnight.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer. A light placement number on Friday’s Cattle on Feed report at 91% was lower than the pre-report estimate of 94% and cold provide support for back months. The on-feed and marketings numbers were within expectations. Cold Storage data will be out today.


Hog futures are called mixed. Back months continue to find support and consolidation from the past week of trade in both June and July of 2020. Weaker front month futures lead to steady to softer. Estimated slaughter was 446,000. This was a lighter than expected slaughter on a Saturday.


Kelly Rubisch

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