TFM Sunrise Update 9-24-19


Corn futures were down 2-1/2 cents overnight as they continue to plot a lateral course ahead of harvest. Crop ratings picked up 2% in the good-to-excellent category now at 57%. The poor-to-very poor category came in at 13% vs 14% last week. Harvest is 7% complete vs a 5-year average of 11% and corn mature at 29% vs a 5-year average of 57%. These reports continue to confirm the crop is late and will need more time.


Soybean futures are called steady to higher. Prices were unchanged overnight. Yesterday crop ratings and progress report indicated the crop is behind schedule with 34% dropping leaves vs a 5-year average of 59%. Crop progress numbers indicated 54% good-to-excellent, the same as last week. Export sales to China yesterday were viewed as supportive and the forecast should likely be viewed as supportive from the perspective of being too wet. The forecast, however, does not indicate any sign of a frost before at least October 1.


Winter wheat futures were down overnight, Spring wheat mostly flat, underpinned by quality issues. Winter wheat is on schedule for planting at 22% complete vs a 5-year average of 24%. Chi contracts were off 3 to 4 cents, KC 2 to 3 cents. Spring wheat is now 87% complete harvested vs 76% last week and 97% on the 5-year average. Wet weather could keep producers on the sidelines on the near term. Traders are also watching Australia’s wheat production forecasts slip, and Egypt’s buying tendencies, where Egypt’s supply minister has indicated the country has enough stockpiles for 4.5 months which is usually a precursor to a tender.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow through after a strong technical showing yesterday on the heels of a supportive USDA report released on Friday afternoon confirming light placements and low on-feed numbers. The Cold Storage report indicated at the end of August that total frozen red meat supplies were up 1% from the previous month but down 1% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from July but down 6% from last year.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher on the heels of solid gains yesterday, particularly the Dec contract which gained over 2.00. Yesterday’s Cold Storage report indicated frozen pork supplies down 1% from last month but up 4% from last year. Pork bellies were reduced 14% from the previous month but 30% higher than a year ago.


Carol Tillmann

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