TFM Sunrise Update June 11, 2019


Corn futures were down 3 to 4 cents overnight while trading inside Monday’s trading ranges. Dec corn is at 4.31, 23 cents off the contract’s peak set on May 29. Weekly crop planting progress registered at 83% finished, which was within expectations and vs a 99% 5-year average. The key states of IL and IN are still lagging behind with IL at 73% complete and IN at 67% complete. First crop ratings came in slightly above expectations with 59% of the crop in good to excellent condition, the market was expecting it to be near 50%. Trade focus now shifts towards this morning’s USDA supply and demand numbers, which still will reflect ample supplies of corn.


Soybean futures traded 4 to 6 cents lower overnight. Planting progress at 60% met market expectations, but still trailing 5-year averages by 28% or 88% average. Today’s USDA supply and demand numbers will likely show nearly 1 bil bu of carryout for the 2019/20 marketing year and an additional 980 mil bu of carryout for the following crop year.


Wheat futures were down a nickel in Chi wheat, and 9 cents in KC. As harvest is starting to ramp up, 4% of this year’s winter wheat crop has been harvested according to the USDA crop progress numbers. Meanwhile, crop conditions stay strong with spring wheat rated 81% good to excellent. Mpls wheat was off 4 cents last night. The USDA will likely show ample supplies of U.S. wheat on today, limiting rally potential in the short term.


Cattle futures are called mixed to higher on follow through after an explosive upturn yesterday. Expectations for stronger cash and ideas that the market may be in oversold territory is providing support. Across the board strength in live cattle, feeder cattle, and hogs was noted.


Hog futures are called steady to higher. Summer months have been recently pressured with Friday hitting their lowest level since early March. However, a strong reversal yesterday sets the stage for a future technical recovery with an upside objective of Jul at 92.



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