TFM Sunrise Update June 13, 2019


Corn futures were up 2 to 3 cents overnight while again bumping up against technical resistance. For Dec corn, that ceiling is at 4.54 as favorable USDA numbers on Tuesday’s report provides some underlying support in the marketplace, but corn futures are challenging key levels for resistance and may move into a more sideways consolidation fashion as we have been holding for the past couple of weeks. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 250,000 to 550,000 tons for 2018-19 crop, 100,000 to 300,000 tons for 2019-20 crop.


Soybean futures were firm overnight with Nov surging to a 1-1/2 week high of 9.13-1/4 before trimming gains. Beans led the way yesterday with a strong push higher on the anticipation of weather concerns, which could spell planting delays. Growers are already behind schedule on the bean crop and this is providing momentum for short covering in today’s trade. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast continues with above average rainfall being seen across the region with systems moving through now extended to the second half of next week—temps will be running average to below average. The Southern U.S. Plains is still forecasted to have above average rainfall favoring the east all the way through early next week—-temps will be running below average. The Northern U.S. Plains will continue to see close to average precip for the region—temps will be warming to above average for the weekend and early next week. The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states has rains continuing in portions of the southeastern states while the Delta is mostly dry. The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has changed for both models now indicating ridging to develop in the central U.S. and bring above average temps and below average rainfall to both the Plains and the Midwest. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 500,000 tons for 2018-19 crop, 100,000 to 300,000 tons for 2019-20 crop.


Wheat futures were off a penny overnight, but strength in row crops will provide underlying support in the wheat market in general. Weather is being closely watched to see if it has impacts on the KC hard red winter wheat’s harvest, as well as improving crop conditions for the Mpls spring wheat crop. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are (50,000) to 50,000 tons for 2018-19 crop, 250,000 to 450,000 tons for 2019-20 crop.


Cattle futures are called mixed to lower. Prices posted a disappointing close as continued concerns regarding strength of cash market and retail values weigh on cattle prices. The June live cattle contract moved higher to start the week as we approach expiration of the contract, but lost traction on Wednesday while posting a bearish outside day of trading and closing with triple digit losses.


Hog futures are called mixed. Front month hog prices are in consolidation mode, but may be testing some key levels of support and at the bottom of most trading ranges. The market has now given hack much of the rally tied to ASF issues in the front months and traders appear to be targeting deferred contracts where there is still some premium. China’s sow herd fell by 23.9% in May from a year earlier, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.



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