TFM Sunrise Update June 18, 2019


Corn futures were down a dime overnight after USDA, in their weekly crop progress report on Monday afternoon, stated that growers planted 92% of this year’s corn crop. This was well within trade expectations. Dec corn fell to an overnight low 4.56-3/4 after posting a contract high at 4.73 on Sunday night. We’ll now see if buying interest develops on price dips as the trade focus shifts to crop ratings, which are hindered by cool, wet conditions at this time. Crop ratings were left unchanged this week at 59% good-to-excellent, and 19 points behind this time last year.


Soybean futures were off as much as a dime overnight before recovering. Nov fell to 9.29-1/2 and was down 3-1/2 cents to 9.36 at 5:30 AM. The USDA showed 77% of this year’s crop planted as of the week ending June 16. This was below expectations, and below the 5-year average of 93%. Traders believe the final soybean acreage will suffer following wet weather over the weekend and a 7-day forecast showing 2 to 5 inches of rain hitting AR, IL, IN, OH, MI and MO. These six states had 17.5 mil acres left to plant as of June 9.


Wheat futures posted double-digit losses overnight with Jul Chi wheat down 13 cents to 5.26-1/2 and KC down 15 cents to 4.60-1/2. Recent strength in other grains have helped provide some lift in wheat overall, but ongoing and strengthening harvest in the hard red winter wheat belt will limit short term rallies. Jul Mpls wheat was down 6-3/4 cents to 5.53-1/2. USDA showed 95% of the spring wheat crop emerged with ratings at 77% good-to-excellent, down 4% from last week.


Cattle futures are called mixed to firmer. Cattle prices trended higher off of Friday’s closes, but did fail at key resistance of the 20-day moving average. Cattle buyers will try to find a bottom in the cash market this week after ranging between $110 and $116 last week.


Hog futures are called flat/firm after a solid start to the week. Oct hogs hit a fresh low early Monday, but recovered with strong gains into the close. Though mired in a down trend, traders will likely view the current price levels as a ‘buy’ which will support reversal action mid-week.



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