TFM Sunrise Update June 21, 2019


Corn futures were firm overnight with contracts holding 10 and 20-day moving average support. A big up day in crude yesterday and weaker dollar is noted as supportive for corn. Today, the corn market, underpinned by less planted acres due to the wet, cool spring as well as NOAA’s 30 day forecast for more of the same into July, focuses on Jul options entering expiration. Cash market strength in the eastern corn-belt is also seen supporting calendar spreads. Dec corn, trading near 4.61 has traded a contract high of 4.73 this week and a low of 4.49.


Soybean futures were down 3 cents overnight following a strong technical close with front month contracts posting outside daily reversals yesterday. The strong performance yesterday bodes well for potential additional short covering as the speculative funds move out of their short positions. President Trump will be meeting with Chairman Xi for discussions about the Chinese trade talks but little has developed since the last meeting resulted in a stalemate. Meanwhile, there remains concerns about final soybean acres getting planted due to the endless rains in many areas and private forecasters are lowering yield estimates. Nov beans are trading at 9.37 with 200-day moving average support holding at 9.24.


Wheat futures were flat/firm overnight after trading lower every day, so far this week. Wet weather across the southern Plains may limit an already behind harvest pace, but global wheat supplies are still strong and overall global weather concerns are minimal.


Cattle futures are called mixed after trading lower. In cash markets, sellers sold cattle in the south at $110/cwt live. Iowa sold cattle at steady to weak prices of $113-114 live. Bids of $109 in other regions are outstanding.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower after trading an outside-down day on Thursday. Pork prices and slow sales to China look to continue to weigh on sentiment heading into the weekend. The only positive is that prices have slumped to oversold territory which could support a rebound of selling dries up.



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